Energy Prospectus

"Oil demand has bottomed out and supply from OPEC+ and North America is falling sharply. The market is thus no longer as oversupplied as feared," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch, adding that there could be a considerable supply deficit in the second half of 2020. < Supply & Demand will be in balance in June.

Oil Analysts See Prices Edging Up But Still Capped Below $40

Oil prices will gradually gain this year with demand improving and supply falling, although tensions between the United States and China are hanging over the coronavirus-hit market, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The survey of 43 analysts forecast Brent crude would average $37.58 a barrel in 2020, about 5% above April's $35.84 consensus, but still lower than the $42.37 average so far this year.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is seen averaging $32.78 a barrel, up from $31.47 last month, after a brief historic fall in the front-month futures contract to minus $40 in April.

Airlines have pointed to signs that travel demand is beginning to perk up in recent weeks, fueling hopes that the stress on beleaguered carriers could begin to wane. Passengers taking flights over Memorial Day weekend, an early test of consumer confidence and the unofficial start of the summer travel season, reached levels unseen since late March. Airlines say bookings are outpacing cancellations, and airplanes that have been almost empty are starting to fill up.

Carriers are far from out of the woods, however. The aviation industry’s recovery from the coronavirus outbreak will be long and slow, with global passenger numbers likely to stay below pre-pandemic levels through 2023, according to S&P Global Ratings, which warned of more rating downgrades for airports over the next few months.

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