Energy Prospectus

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for EQT and my valuation stays at $21/share.

Hedges are very important this year (as I have posted here about 100 times). In the first two quarters of 2020 EQT has cashed settlement checks on their hedges of $561,129,000, which compares to their total cash flow from operations of $733,372,000. Plus, my rough estimate is that they will cash another $400 million over the next two quarters.

I hope you noticed in my newsletter that EIA is now forecasting that U.S. natural gas prices will average $3.10/MMBtu in 2021 (top of page 4). If that happens, EQT may go to $30/share, because at $3.10 they will generate over $9.00 operating cash flow per share which will exceed $2.5 Billion. My valuation is based on ngas averaging $2.50 next year.

EQT said it cut capital spending to $303 million in the quarter from $466 million a year earlier. It has already spent about $565 million of its planned $1.075 billion to $1.175 billion in total capex in 2020. < Capex now compares to my updated 2020 operating cash flow forecast of $1.447 Billion.

Reuters' notes from EQT Conference Call:

EQT Corp., the biggest U.S. natural gas producer, said July 27 all of the Appalachian production it curtailed in May had returned to sales in July with no degradation to well performance.

EQT temporarily curtailed about 1.4 Bcfe/d of gross production on May 16 for the duration of the second quarter as demand destruction from the coronavirus cut prices for the fuel to a 25-year low.

On a post-earnings call, the company said shutting in production still looked worthwhile economically and it would "look and see" before taking further actions.

Gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana plunged to an average of $1.77 per thousand cubic feet during the quarter, their lowest since 1995, down from $1.98 in the first quarter and $2.66 from a year earlier, federal energy data showed.

EQT said it produced 346 Bcfe in the reported quarter at an average realized price of $2.36 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe). That compares with a total output of 370 Bcfe a year earlier at an average realized price of $2.59 per Mcfe.

In the third quarter, it expects total sales volume to rise to between 360-380 Bcf/d.

EQT said it cut capital spending to $303 million in the quarter from $466 million a year earlier. It has already spent about $565 million of its planned $1.075 billion to $1.175 billion in total capex in 2020.

EQT also said it drilled 21 wells in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, three wells in the West Virginia Marcellus and two in the Utica Shale in Ohio during the second quarter.

The company plans to drill 17 wells in the Pennsylvania Marcellus, 15 in the West Virginia Marcellus and none in the Ohio Utica during the third quarter.