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Oil & Gas Prices - August 24

Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:31 am
by dan_s
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 34c to $42.68/Bbl, and Brent is up 44c to $44.79/Bbl.
> Natural gas is up 4.8c to $2.496/MMBtu.

Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (OCT 20) was up $0.28 on the day, to settle at $42.62/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (SEP 20) was up $0.065 on the day, to settle at $2.513/MMBtu. < A month ago I would have given less than a 1% chance of the September NYMEX futures contract for natural gas closing over $2.50 in August. If we have a cold start to winter, we might see gas over $4.00 in January.



Last week's news impacting the global oil & gas markets:

On August 21 Reuters reported oil producing countries in the OPEC+ group that pumped above supply targets from May to July will need to slash output by over a million barrels per day for two months to compensate, according to OPEC sources and an internal OPEC+ report seen by Reuters. Some countries such as Iraq and Nigeria failed to meet those targets and are coming under pressure from other OPEC+ members, including de-facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, to reduce production to ensure they compensate by the end of September for the oversupply since the cuts were agreed. The volume they need to reduce is the equivalent to 1.15 million b/d over two months, one OPEC source said, or 2.31 million b/d over one month, according to the OPEC+ report.

On August 20 Reuters reported crude exports from Saudi Arabia extended a decline in June to the lowest on record, official data showed on Thursday, as global demand remained squeezed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Exports fell 17.3% from the month before to 4.98 million b/d, their lowest since at least January 2002, data from JODI showed. Total oil shipped from Saudi Arabia, including oil products, fell 18.7% to 6.08 million b/d from 7.48 million b/d in May, while crude stocks rose by 5.8 million barrels to 153.35 million, the official figures showed.

On August 21 Bloomberg reported that IHS Markit released its flash composite PMI index for Eurozone in August and it came in at 51.6 vs. estimates of 55, and IHS Markit’s PMI Manufacturing for Germany rose to 53.0 in August from 51.0 in July and it was in line with consensus estimates and IHS Markit’s PMI Manufacturing for France fell to 49.0 in August from 52.4 in July and it was below estimates of 53.0.

On August 20 Reuters reported India's crude oil imports fell in July to their lowest since March 2010 as fuel demand slowed amid renewed coronavirus-induced lockdowns and closures of refinery units for maintenance, government data showed on Thursday. Crude oil imports last month slumped about 36.4% from a year earlier to 2.92 million b/d, data from the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas showed. That marked a fourth straight monthly decline. Fuel demand in the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer also fell, posting a fifth consecutive year-on-year drop.

On August 19 Reuters reported that Japan’s crude oil imports rose by 11.1% in July vs. June levels to 2.34 million b/d, down 23.4% year over year, according to the Ministry of Finance.

On August 18 Platts reported that China's imports of U.S. LNG totaled about $300M during the first half of the year, and together with purchases of the remainder of U.S. energy products, fell short of Phase 1 trade targets, according to recent data from Panjiva, a business line of S&P Global Market Intelligence.

On August 18 Reuters reported that Asian LNG prices have reversed course and are on track to hit their highest since January, when the coronavirus pandemic first hit demand, as sweltering weather in north Asia fans demand just when supply remains constrained

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - August 24

Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:34 am
by dan_s
57% of GoM oil production offline as of 8/23 From BofA Research

A number of operators have already ordered precautionary evacuations ahead of the storms (Marco and Laura). As of 1:00pm Aug 23rd, 114 platforms have been evacuated (out of 643 manned
platforms in the GoM). Associated production shut-in stood at 1.07 million barrels of oil per day or 56.7% of current GoM oil production (1.85mm bpd) although we expect this to increase over the
balance of Sun and Mon. 13 drilling rigs have been affected so far: five out of 10 non-dynamically positioned rigs that can not be moved have been evacuated with an additional eight dynamically positioned rigs out of the 16 relocated out of the expected path of the storms. Any producing platforms shut-ins will likely remain off line until both storms have passed.

Laura has more potential to damage onshore Louisiana upstream and downstream assets.

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - August 24

Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:19 pm
by dan_s
Update from the Oil & Gas Journal online service:

Offshore oil and gas operators in the US Gulf of Mexico are evacuating platforms and rigs in preparation for tropical storms Marco and Laura. Tropical Storm Marco was downgraded from its previous status as a Category 1 hurricane Aug. 23 as it headed toward the Louisiana coast. It is expected to skirt the Louisiana coastline Aug. 24. Tropical Storm Laura is currently expected to make landfall in western Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane Aug. 26.

Based on data from offshore operator reports submitted to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement as of 11:30 CDT on Aug. 23, personnel have been evacuated from 114 production platforms, 17.73% of the 643 manned platforms in the US gulf.

BSEE estimates that 57.6% of current gulf crude oil production, or 1,065,614 b/d, and 44.6% of natural gas production, or 1,205 MMcfd, have been shut in.

Personnel have been evacuated from five of the 10 nondynamically positioned rigs working in the gulf. Eight of the 16 dynamically positioned rigs, by BSEE’s count, have moved off location out of the path of the two storms as a precaution.

BSEE will continue to update the evacuation and shut-in statistics at 1:00 p.m. CDT each day as appropriate.