Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 3,756 Bcf as of Friday, September 25, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 76 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 471 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 405 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,351 Bcf.
At 3,756 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

Over the next six weeks the five year average build is 408 Bcf, which would put store at 4,164. This is just below estimated working capacity of the U.S. storage system.

Draws from storage normally begin the 2nd week of November and ramp up quickly. By mid-December, weekly draws normally exceed 100 Bcf.

This winter
> More areas rely on gas fired power plans for electricity
> More homes heat with gas
> U.S. gas production is down YOY
> U.S. gas exports will be up YOY
Conclusion: We need a lot more gas in storage to make it through a cold winter.

Aegis Energy: EIA reported a build of *76* Bcf for the week ending 9/25/2020. This was smaller than the median estimate of 78 Bcf. Today’s stat fell within the expected range, which was 86 Bcf on the more bearish end, and 75 Bcf on the more bullish end.

Prices were down in the five minutes following the announcement, to $2.448, from $2.474 just before 9:30am.

Aegis Energy has invited EPG members to attend their webinar next week that will focus on the U.S. natural gas market. We will send out details and how you can register later today.