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EQT Corp (EQT) Q3 Results - Oct 23

Posted: Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:44 pm
by dan_s
EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) announced financial and operational performance results for the third quarter 2020.

Third Quarter Highlights:

Adjusted net loss of $38 million compares to my forecast of a $33 million net loss. < Going forward, EQT should be profitable and generate lots of FCF from operations.

Sales volumes of 366 Bcfe, in-line with guidance, despite 15 Bcf of volume curtailments < Compares to my Q3 forecast of 361.3 Bcfe.

Received an average realized price of $2.33 /Mcfe, a $0.25 premium to NYMEX pricing

Net cash provided by operating activities of $184 MM; < including the tax refund below, they exceeded by cash flow forecast of $315.7 million.
free cash flow of $47 MM

Capital expenditures of $248 MM, $227 MM lower than 3Q19 and $55 MM lower than 2Q20

Well costs of $660 /foot in the PA Marcellus, surpassing target well costs by $70 /foot < with natural gas prices over $3, new wells should payout in less than 1.5 years.

Received $202 million in tax refunds, including accrued interest and Successfully appealed prior taxes paid; additional tax refunds of $48 MM expected in 4Q20

Production uptime continues to exceed 98%

Horizontal drilling speeds and completion stages/day improved 19% and 15%, respectively, compared to 2Q20

Reduced midpoint of full-year 2020 capital expenditure guidance by $50 MM

President and CEO Toby Rice stated, "Our third quarter results, particularly on the operational side, continue to see meaningful step changes in efficiencies, as we continue to find ways to increase performance and enhance results. For the second consecutive quarter, we have executed at a level meaningfully below our target well costs, developing our Pennsylvania Marcellus asset for $660 per foot, driven almost entirely by sustainable efficiency gains. These results demonstrate this team's continued progress in delivering value for our stakeholders and have paved the way for improvements to certain full-year 2020 guidance."

Rice continued, "Our commitment to operating under the highest environmental, social and governance standards sits at the heart of our corporate strategy. We recently published our revamped ESG Report, which highlights the environmental benefits of our combo-development strategy, enhancements to our data collection, monitoring and reporting platform, and steps we are taking to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. We believe ESG is a critical component for long-term, sustainable value creation and we intend to be the clear natural gas leader."

I will update my EQT forecast/valuation model on Saturday.

Re: EQT Corp (EQT) Q3 Results - Oct 23

Posted: Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:05 am
by dan_s
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for EQT and it will be posted to the EPG website late today.

EQT reported a Q3 loss because of a $681.4 million mark-to-market (non-cash) writedown on the value of their hedges. Adjusted cash flow from operations were $294.7 million for the quarter and they are on track to generate $1,445 million of cash flow from operations that will more than cover their 2020 capital expenditures of approximately $1,075 million.

EQT wisely elected to choke back production in Q2 and Q3 rather than sell gas and NGLs into a low price market. Cash settlements on their hedges for Q1 to Q3 were $815.3 million.

All of EQT's production is now back on-line, so production will be approximately 250,000 mcfe per day from Q3 to Q4 and sold at much higher prices.

If natural gas prices average $3.00/MMBtu in 2021, EQT should generate over $2.2 Billion of cash flow from operations next year.

My valuation stays at $25.00 for EQT.