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Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) Q3 Results - Oct 29

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:48 am
by dan_s
OVV produces a lot of natural gas and NGLs, which will give them a big revenue boost heading into 2021.

Results strengthen outlook for 2021 Scenario
Consistent framework provided for future capital allocation and debt reduction

Highlights:

Posted $47 million of non-GAAP free cash flow and reduced net debt by $217 million during the third quarter, reaffirmed pledge that all excess cash flows will go toward debt reduction

Reported third quarter cash from operating activities of $493 million and non-GAAP cash flow of $398 million < Compares to my forecast of $405 million operating cash flow.

Exceeded guidance with third quarter crude and condensate production of 186 thousand barrels per day (Mbbls/d).
Fourth quarter and full-year 2021 crude and condensate average production forecast of 200 Mbbls/d reaffirmed

Achieved 20% capital efficiency gains ahead of schedule; Company achieved record low well costs in each active drilling area which provides high confidence in 2021 scenario

Reaffirmed 2020-21 scenarios and provided additional clarity around its framework for future capital allocation and debt reduction

The 2021 scenario capital investment midpoint of $1.5 billion represents less than 70% cash flow reinvestment at at $45 WTI and $3 NYMEX natural gas

The Company recorded a net loss in the third quarter of $1.5 billion, or ($5.85) per share of common stock. Results were impacted by the following items:
> A non-cash ceiling test impairment of $1,336 million, before-tax, primarily related to the decline in 12-month average trailing commodity prices which reduced SEC proved reserves.
>A non-cash unrealized loss on risk management of $243 million, before-tax, related to the mark-to-market value of derivative positions.
Excluding these and other items, the Company reported a non-GAAP operating loss of $8 million. < Compares to my forecast of a net loss of $56 million for Q3.

Re: Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) Q3 Results - Oct 29

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:06 pm
by dan_s
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for OVV and it will be posted to the EPG website later today.

I have lowered my valuation by $1 to $17.50, because I am lowering my production forecast for 2021. Once they provided detailed guidance for 2021 I will probably raise my valuation because I'm only valuing the stock at 2.5 X operating cash flow per share. That is a low multiple for a company of this size (over 510,000 Boepd of production in Q3), lots of running room in their Core 3 areas and plenty of liquidity. They also pay a quarterly dividend for ~4.3% annual yield. If natural gas and NGL prices move higher than what I'm using in the model ($2.90 for ngas and $27.50 for NGLs), there is definitely upside here.

FWIW First Call's 2021 operating cash flow per share forecast is $7.28. < OVV is trading for just $8.69 at the time of this post.