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Devon Energy (DVN) Q3 Results - Oct 30

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:01 pm
by dan_s
KEY FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
• Third-quarter oil production totaled 146,000 barrels per day, exceeding midpoint guidance by 6,000 barrels per day < Compares to my forecast of 140,000 BOPD.
• Delaware Basin efficiency gains drove capital expenditures below midpoint guidance in the quarter
• Production expenses were below guidance, improving 8 percent year over year
• Operating cash flow expanded quarter over quarter to $427 million. Adjusted operating cash flow (before changed in current assets and liabilities was $369 < Compares to my adjusted operating cash flow forecast of $278 million.
• Free cash flow generation reached $223 million in the third quarter
• Barnett Shale asset divestiture was completed on Oct. 1
• Paid $100 million special dividend in conjunction with Barnett divestiture
• Announced transformational merger of equals with WPX Energy on Sept. 28, creating a leading U.S. energy company

Devon reported a net loss of $92 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, in the third quarter. Adjusting for items analysts typically exclude from estimates, Devon had a core loss of $12 million, or $0.04 per diluted share. < Compares to my forecast of a $21 million loss.

“Devon is executing at a very high level on all aspects of our disciplined cash-return business model,” said Dave Hager, president and CEO. “Our third-quarter performance was highlighted by record-setting well productivity and capital efficiency gains in the Delaware Basin that drove oil production well above guidance with a total capital investment that was below forecast.
Furthermore, this strong operational performance, coupled with significant improvements in our corporate cost structure, positioned us to generate $223 million of free cash flow in the quarter.”

“With our operations successfully scaled to generate free cash flow, our advantaged financial position allows us to accelerate the return of capital to shareholders,” Hager said. “In conjunction with the recent closing of the Barnett Shale divestiture, we rewarded our shareholders with a $100 million special dividend. This action further demonstrates our commitment to the cash return business model, which moderates growth, emphasizes capital efficiencies, prioritizes free cash flow and returns increasing amounts of cash to shareholders.”

Re: Devon Energy (DVN) Q3 Results - Oct 30

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:31 pm
by dan_s
DVN is now trading at $8.77.
First Call's price target is $15.92
Since the merger with WPX was announced 11 analysts have updated their price targets (only one since they released Q3 results). The price targets range from $14 to $31.
My valuation increases to $18.00, but I do need to do more work on the proforma forecast for 2021.
My "partially updated forecast" will be posted to the EPG website late today.