Energy Prospectus

Interesting analysis of how coming ngas pipeline capacity changes for Permian to Gulf Coast will affect discounts. Author uses a "mid" case scenario that assumes WTI hovering in the mid 40s in "the coming months and years." That, plus other assumptions (specified) lead to, among others, this conclusion:

3. Following the completion of PHP and Whistler, capacity surpluses will tighten the Permian gas market, resulting in a significant narrowing of price basis between Permian Waha and Henry Hub. After averaging a discount to Henry Hub of almost $1.00/MMBtu in 2020, Waha basis is expected to narrow to only $0.25/MMBtu below Henry in 2022.

If this (reasonably conservative) scenario were to occur, I would think it would be very helpful to Permian gas producers (or any producer who is subject to pricing influenced by Waha pricing.

https://rbnenergy.com/some-beach-part-4 ... as-markets

It will be extremely helpful to all of the Permian Basin companies, some of which had negative gas prices (net of transportation fees) in 2019 and 1H 2020.

For example:
Diamondback's realized ngas price for the year 2019, including some positive cash settlements on hedges, was $0.83/mcf
This year FANG's realized ngas prices were $0.42/mcf in Q1, $0.33/mcf in Q2 and $0.95/mcf in Q3.
A $1 increase in their realized ngas price on 2021 forecast production of 360,000 mcfpd will be a revenue boost of $131.4 million.