EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Nov 11
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:10 pm
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending November 13, 2020
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 13, 2020 which was 395,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 77.4% of their operable capacity last week. < Refineries s/b running at close to 85% capacity this time of year.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.1 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.3 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 245,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.4 million barrels per day, 12.5% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 530,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 285,000 barrels per day.
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 489.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. < Back within the 5-year range.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels last week and are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 10.2 million barrels last week. < Bullish as all refined products inventories are moving back toward 30 days of supply.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.4 million barrels a day, down by 9.1% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.5 million barrels a day, down by 9.5% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 6.5% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 39.8% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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Positive news on COVID-19 vaccines is now the primary driver of oil prices. Also, encouraging news out of China that demand is all the way back to pre-pandemic level. OPEC+ would be wise to extend their current production quotas for at least another three months. As you can see on slide 5 of my November podcast, OECD inventories should be back to normal levels (30-days of supply) by the end of Q2 2021 and then continue falling to a dangerously low level by year-end 2021. From 4-1-2020 to 3-31-2021 non-OPEC+ production will have fallen by at least 5 million bpd. Then non-OPEC+ production will keep falling no matter how high oil prices go because it will take a lot of time to triple the active rig count.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 13, 2020 which was 395,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 77.4% of their operable capacity last week. < Refineries s/b running at close to 85% capacity this time of year.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.1 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.3 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 245,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.4 million barrels per day, 12.5% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 530,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 285,000 barrels per day.
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 489.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. < Back within the 5-year range.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels last week and are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 10.2 million barrels last week. < Bullish as all refined products inventories are moving back toward 30 days of supply.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.4 million barrels a day, down by 9.1% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.5 million barrels a day, down by 9.5% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 6.5% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 39.8% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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Positive news on COVID-19 vaccines is now the primary driver of oil prices. Also, encouraging news out of China that demand is all the way back to pre-pandemic level. OPEC+ would be wise to extend their current production quotas for at least another three months. As you can see on slide 5 of my November podcast, OECD inventories should be back to normal levels (30-days of supply) by the end of Q2 2021 and then continue falling to a dangerously low level by year-end 2021. From 4-1-2020 to 3-31-2021 non-OPEC+ production will have fallen by at least 5 million bpd. Then non-OPEC+ production will keep falling no matter how high oil prices go because it will take a lot of time to triple the active rig count.