Energy Prospectus

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 4, 2020

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.4 million barrels per day during the week ending December 4, 2020 which was 424,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 79.9% of their operable capacity last week. < Almost back to 80%.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.7 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, increased by 1.1 million barrels per day from the previous week.
Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.6 million barrels per day, 10.7% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 789,000 barrels per day,
and distillate fuel imports averaged 279,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 15.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 503.2 million barrels, U.S. crude
oil inventories are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels last week and are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year.
>>Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 19.9 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 18.9 million barrels a day, down by 7.5% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.0 million barrels a day, down by 12.0% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 2.7% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 34.9% compared with the same four-week period last year.

This is a bearish report, but oil price seems to be holding up OK. The week to week reports during the holiday season can be "weird".

Aegis Energy comments:

"EIA reported a build of 15,189 MBbls in U.S. crude-oil inventories for the week ending 12/4/2020. This was much larger than the average estimate of -849 MBbls as reported by Bloomberg. This week’s stat release was a complete surprise, as explained by the immediate response in oil prices.

Prices were down five minutes following the announcement, to $45.41, from $46.02 just before 9:30am.

Upon further examination, the figures show net imports rose by 2.6 MMBbl/d during the week ending December 4, 2020. This equates to roughly 18 MMBbls in the market, which helps explain the large build reported by the EIA. Imports rose by 1MMBbl/d during the week, while exports decreased by 1.6 MMBbl/d.

Inventories for the US are now at a surplus of 56.135 MBbls to last year and a surplus of 47.70 MBbls to the five-year average."
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EIA's U.S. oil production estimate was flat week to week at 11.1 million BOPD (a WAG), which compares to refinery inputs of oil of 14.4 million BOPD, an increase of 424,000 BOPD week-to-week.