EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Dec 10
Posted: Thu Dec 10, 2020 12:22 pm
Working gas in storage was 3,848 Bcf as of Friday, December 4, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 91 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 309 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 260 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,588 Bcf.
At 3,848 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
So, after last week's bearish storage report we get a draw from storage that is almost double the 5-year average (-50 Bcf) for the week.
Here is the rule: Making long-term forecasts based on one week or even one month of data in this industry (especially true for natural gas) is foolish. We aren't going to have history's warmest winter just because it was warm in November. Remember that we had the earliest draw from storage this year; a 36 Bcf draw in the week ending October 30. That draw sent ngas futures over $3.30.
Over the last 13 weeks (a much better gauge) the net builds in storage have been 182 Bcf below the 5-year average. The HUGE increase in exports of U.S. natural gas combined with even a mild winter is going to drain storage. LNG delivered prices are way up in Asia and going up in Europe. Plus, U.S. gas production is down year-over-year.
Stocks were 309 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 260 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,588 Bcf.
At 3,848 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
So, after last week's bearish storage report we get a draw from storage that is almost double the 5-year average (-50 Bcf) for the week.
Here is the rule: Making long-term forecasts based on one week or even one month of data in this industry (especially true for natural gas) is foolish. We aren't going to have history's warmest winter just because it was warm in November. Remember that we had the earliest draw from storage this year; a 36 Bcf draw in the week ending October 30. That draw sent ngas futures over $3.30.
Over the last 13 weeks (a much better gauge) the net builds in storage have been 182 Bcf below the 5-year average. The HUGE increase in exports of U.S. natural gas combined with even a mild winter is going to drain storage. LNG delivered prices are way up in Asia and going up in Europe. Plus, U.S. gas production is down year-over-year.