EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Dec 23
Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2020 12:49 pm
Working gas in storage was 3,574 Bcf as of Friday, December 18, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 152 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 278 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 218 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,356 Bcf.
At 3,574 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Over the last 13 weeks (a quarter of a year), the change in natural gas in storage has been -215 BCF, which is why storage is back within the 5-year range.
I think it is a good bet that over the next 13 weeks (by mid-March) the storage level goes below the 5-year average. U.S. natural gas production has declined by ~6 Bcfpd from December 2019 to December 2020 and LNG exports are up by ~2 Bcfpd. Exports to Mexico via pipeline are also up.
Year-over-year comparisons should be extremely bullish going forward because last winter was mild.
> U.S. weather Q1 of 2020 was very mild: Over the 13 weeks that began mid-December 2019 to mid-March 2020 natural gas storage decline by 1,245 Bcf.
> With just normal weather storage draws will be much higher over the next 13 weeks. The 5-year average draws for the next 13 weeks is 1,653 Bcf, which includes years with very little exports and several mild winters.
> My WAG is that we get to March 31, 2021 at or below the 5-year average of 1,700 BCF of gas in storage. A normal winter will push storage under 1,500 Bcf.
It is very important that you all understand that refilling storage before the next winter heating season arrives in not optional. Utilities must have enough gas in storage to maintain line pressures during a cold winter. FEAR of not having enough gas in storage to meet winter demand is the PRIMARY DRIVER of ngas "Price Wars" between utilities.
Stocks were 278 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 218 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,356 Bcf.
At 3,574 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Over the last 13 weeks (a quarter of a year), the change in natural gas in storage has been -215 BCF, which is why storage is back within the 5-year range.
I think it is a good bet that over the next 13 weeks (by mid-March) the storage level goes below the 5-year average. U.S. natural gas production has declined by ~6 Bcfpd from December 2019 to December 2020 and LNG exports are up by ~2 Bcfpd. Exports to Mexico via pipeline are also up.
Year-over-year comparisons should be extremely bullish going forward because last winter was mild.
> U.S. weather Q1 of 2020 was very mild: Over the 13 weeks that began mid-December 2019 to mid-March 2020 natural gas storage decline by 1,245 Bcf.
> With just normal weather storage draws will be much higher over the next 13 weeks. The 5-year average draws for the next 13 weeks is 1,653 Bcf, which includes years with very little exports and several mild winters.
> My WAG is that we get to March 31, 2021 at or below the 5-year average of 1,700 BCF of gas in storage. A normal winter will push storage under 1,500 Bcf.
It is very important that you all understand that refilling storage before the next winter heating season arrives in not optional. Utilities must have enough gas in storage to maintain line pressures during a cold winter. FEAR of not having enough gas in storage to meet winter demand is the PRIMARY DRIVER of ngas "Price Wars" between utilities.