HAPPY NEW YEAR - Welcome to 2021
Posted: Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:14 pm
You survived 2020 and so did over 99% of the Americans that were alive on 1-1-2020. Each year 0.7% to 1.0% of the people alive on January 1st are no longer with us by year-end. Since very few of us will live to 100, it makes sense. Despite the gloom and doom of the pandemic, 2020 was no different. God has blessed us with an incredible immune system and we adapt quickly; even to extreme injury or illness. 99.9% of Americans did NOT die from Covid-19. The virus is no match for a healthy human immune system.
The Earth's human population is now over 7,836,000,000 and it is growing by 200,000 more people each day. Covid-19's impact on human population was barely a rounding error.
Now it is time to Thrive in 2021. While you do, help others who are less fortunate than you are. Millions of people that owned or worked for small businesses lost their sources of income thanks to pandemic shutdown. We can help by hiring others to do some odd jobs around our homes that we might have done ourselves. I personally like to help others that are willing to work rather than wait for a government bailout. Support small businesses that are struggling to get back on their feet.
We appreciate your support.
At some point this pandemic will be over. As the global economy rebounds it will demand more energy and most of that energy will come from oil, gas and coal. It will actually take a lot of hydrocarbon based fuel to build all of the windmills and solar panels that will provide electricity in the future. In ten years, oil, gas and coal will still provide over 70% of the primary energy that we need.
During December, I took a hard look at all of the companies in our three model portfolios. They are all in good shape and set to thrive in 2021. The safest bets are in our Sweet 16 and the large-caps in our High Yield Income Portfolio. Over the last few months I added AR, CRK, EQT and last week I added ESTE to replace Parsley Energy (PE). CRK was the only stock down since April 10 (the day I picked at the bottom of the "Pandemic Cycle"). Comstock Resources (CRK) reported a disappointing dip in production in Q3 2020, primarily because of well shut-ins that are now back on-line. The Company's guidance is for production to be up ~10% YOY in 2021 + revenues s/b up ~30% when combined with higher realized gas and NGL prices.
There is lots of upside: 11 of the Sweet 16 open the New Year trading below book value per share. As a group the portfolio is trading at less than 3.5 X cash flow per share for 2020. Companies of this quality should trade for AT LEAST 6X operating cash flow per year.
The Earth's human population is now over 7,836,000,000 and it is growing by 200,000 more people each day. Covid-19's impact on human population was barely a rounding error.
Now it is time to Thrive in 2021. While you do, help others who are less fortunate than you are. Millions of people that owned or worked for small businesses lost their sources of income thanks to pandemic shutdown. We can help by hiring others to do some odd jobs around our homes that we might have done ourselves. I personally like to help others that are willing to work rather than wait for a government bailout. Support small businesses that are struggling to get back on their feet.
We appreciate your support.
At some point this pandemic will be over. As the global economy rebounds it will demand more energy and most of that energy will come from oil, gas and coal. It will actually take a lot of hydrocarbon based fuel to build all of the windmills and solar panels that will provide electricity in the future. In ten years, oil, gas and coal will still provide over 70% of the primary energy that we need.
During December, I took a hard look at all of the companies in our three model portfolios. They are all in good shape and set to thrive in 2021. The safest bets are in our Sweet 16 and the large-caps in our High Yield Income Portfolio. Over the last few months I added AR, CRK, EQT and last week I added ESTE to replace Parsley Energy (PE). CRK was the only stock down since April 10 (the day I picked at the bottom of the "Pandemic Cycle"). Comstock Resources (CRK) reported a disappointing dip in production in Q3 2020, primarily because of well shut-ins that are now back on-line. The Company's guidance is for production to be up ~10% YOY in 2021 + revenues s/b up ~30% when combined with higher realized gas and NGL prices.
There is lots of upside: 11 of the Sweet 16 open the New Year trading below book value per share. As a group the portfolio is trading at less than 3.5 X cash flow per share for 2020. Companies of this quality should trade for AT LEAST 6X operating cash flow per year.