Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) Update - Jan 4
Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:43 pm
Below is the Company's press release with my comments in blue. My updated forecast/valuation model for OVV will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.
Per TipRanks: During December six energy sector analysts submitted updated reports on OVV, their price targets range from $13 to $19 per share. Based on the fresh information the Company provided today, my valuation increases by $2.50 to $20.00 per share. The significant beat of consensus production estimates for Q4 should draw a lot of upgrades. If they do continue generating FCF from operations and raise production at the same time, OVV has a lot more upside for us.
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DENVER, Jan. 4, 2021 /CNW/ - Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE: OVV) (TSX: OVV) today announced preliminary financial results and select operating metrics for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2020.
Highlights:
Reduced total long-term debt, including current portion, by $257 million in the fourth quarter. Ovintiv has been focused on debt reduction and has a plan to reduce total debt by at least $1 billion from the second half of 2020 through year-end 2021. As of year-end 2020, the Company is nearly halfway to achieving its year-end 2021 target. < Stronger balance sheet justifies a much higher multiple of operating cash flow I'm using to value this stock.
Delivered strong well performance, driving fourth quarter oil and condensate production of more than 210 thousand barrels per day (Mbbls/d), above guidance of 200 Mbbls/d; Fourth quarter total production was more than 550 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d). < This compares to the mid-point of their guidance and what I used in my Q4 forecast of 517,000 Boepd of production for the quarter.
Recorded full-year 2020 production of more than 540 MBOE/d. < Ovintiv produces a lot of natural gas and NGLs that are going to give Q4 2020 and 1H 2021 revenues a big boost.
Maintained disciplined capital investment program. Full-year 2020 investments are expected to be ~$1.75 billion, less than guidance of $1.8 billion; Further capital efficiency gains achieved with fourth quarter average completed well costs approximately 25% lower than full-year 2019 averages; new pacesetter well costs attained in each of the three core plays.
Ovintiv CEO Doug Suttles said, "We finished 2020 with one of our best quarters, achieving outstanding financial and operating results that will likely be well ahead of consensus. 2020 was an incredibly challenging year but showed our strengths through a high-quality portfolio, industry-leading efficiencies and world class risk management. For the third consecutive year, we delivered meaningful free cash flow. We enter 2021 with high confidence in our ability to deliver on our $1 billion-plus debt reduction target while efficiently maintaining our scale."
In 2021, the Company plans to invest approximately $1.5 billion to deliver average annual oil and condensate production of 200 Mbbls/d. This represents an estimated reinvestment rate of less than 70% of non-GAAP cash flow and more than $800 million of non-GAAP free cash flow at $45 WTI and $3 NYMEX natural gas. All excess cash flows will be allocated to debt reduction.
The Company plans to issue its full 2020 financial and operating results and 2021 guidance after market close on February 17, 2021. A conference call will be held on February 18, 2021 at 9 a.m. MT. In addition to the release, supplemental slides and financial statements will be available on the Company's website, located at www.ovintiv.com. To participate in the conference call, please dial 888-664-6383 (toll-free in North America) or 416-764-8650 (international) approximately 15 minutes prior to the call.
The live audio webcast of the 2020 fourth quarter and year-end conference call, including slides, will also be available on Ovintiv's website, under Investors/Presentations and Events, and will be archived for approximately 90 days.
Per TipRanks: During December six energy sector analysts submitted updated reports on OVV, their price targets range from $13 to $19 per share. Based on the fresh information the Company provided today, my valuation increases by $2.50 to $20.00 per share. The significant beat of consensus production estimates for Q4 should draw a lot of upgrades. If they do continue generating FCF from operations and raise production at the same time, OVV has a lot more upside for us.
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DENVER, Jan. 4, 2021 /CNW/ - Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE: OVV) (TSX: OVV) today announced preliminary financial results and select operating metrics for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2020.
Highlights:
Reduced total long-term debt, including current portion, by $257 million in the fourth quarter. Ovintiv has been focused on debt reduction and has a plan to reduce total debt by at least $1 billion from the second half of 2020 through year-end 2021. As of year-end 2020, the Company is nearly halfway to achieving its year-end 2021 target. < Stronger balance sheet justifies a much higher multiple of operating cash flow I'm using to value this stock.
Delivered strong well performance, driving fourth quarter oil and condensate production of more than 210 thousand barrels per day (Mbbls/d), above guidance of 200 Mbbls/d; Fourth quarter total production was more than 550 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d). < This compares to the mid-point of their guidance and what I used in my Q4 forecast of 517,000 Boepd of production for the quarter.
Recorded full-year 2020 production of more than 540 MBOE/d. < Ovintiv produces a lot of natural gas and NGLs that are going to give Q4 2020 and 1H 2021 revenues a big boost.
Maintained disciplined capital investment program. Full-year 2020 investments are expected to be ~$1.75 billion, less than guidance of $1.8 billion; Further capital efficiency gains achieved with fourth quarter average completed well costs approximately 25% lower than full-year 2019 averages; new pacesetter well costs attained in each of the three core plays.
Ovintiv CEO Doug Suttles said, "We finished 2020 with one of our best quarters, achieving outstanding financial and operating results that will likely be well ahead of consensus. 2020 was an incredibly challenging year but showed our strengths through a high-quality portfolio, industry-leading efficiencies and world class risk management. For the third consecutive year, we delivered meaningful free cash flow. We enter 2021 with high confidence in our ability to deliver on our $1 billion-plus debt reduction target while efficiently maintaining our scale."
In 2021, the Company plans to invest approximately $1.5 billion to deliver average annual oil and condensate production of 200 Mbbls/d. This represents an estimated reinvestment rate of less than 70% of non-GAAP cash flow and more than $800 million of non-GAAP free cash flow at $45 WTI and $3 NYMEX natural gas. All excess cash flows will be allocated to debt reduction.
The Company plans to issue its full 2020 financial and operating results and 2021 guidance after market close on February 17, 2021. A conference call will be held on February 18, 2021 at 9 a.m. MT. In addition to the release, supplemental slides and financial statements will be available on the Company's website, located at www.ovintiv.com. To participate in the conference call, please dial 888-664-6383 (toll-free in North America) or 416-764-8650 (international) approximately 15 minutes prior to the call.
The live audio webcast of the 2020 fourth quarter and year-end conference call, including slides, will also be available on Ovintiv's website, under Investors/Presentations and Events, and will be archived for approximately 90 days.