Oil & Gas Prices used in forecast models - Jan 5
Posted: Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:28 am
Over the next two weeks I will be updating all of the Sweet 16 forecast models; breaking out 2021 by quarter and adding a full year forecast for 2022.
I am adjusting the commodity prices used in the models to the following, always adjusting for regional differentials and each company's hedges
WTI oil prices
2021
Q1 = $45
Q2 = $50
Q3 = $55
Q4 = $60
Yr = $52.50
2022 I am using $60 for the year, but I do think the range of $65 to $75 is more likely
HH Natural gas prices
2021
Q1 = $2.75
Q2 = $2.50
Q3 = $2.75
Q4 = $3.00
Yr = $2.75
2022 I am using $3.00 for the full year, but if LNG exports hold up this summer I think a range of $3.25 to $3.75 next winter is likely.
NOTE: All of our "gassers" have a high percentage of their dry gas hedged, which reduces the impact of HH price changes on their revenues.
All of my forecast/valuation models are "macro driven", so you can download them to Excel and change the commodity prices in each forecast period and the models will automatically earnings, operating cash flow and stock price valuation.
I am adjusting the commodity prices used in the models to the following, always adjusting for regional differentials and each company's hedges
WTI oil prices
2021
Q1 = $45
Q2 = $50
Q3 = $55
Q4 = $60
Yr = $52.50
2022 I am using $60 for the year, but I do think the range of $65 to $75 is more likely
HH Natural gas prices
2021
Q1 = $2.75
Q2 = $2.50
Q3 = $2.75
Q4 = $3.00
Yr = $2.75
2022 I am using $3.00 for the full year, but if LNG exports hold up this summer I think a range of $3.25 to $3.75 next winter is likely.
NOTE: All of our "gassers" have a high percentage of their dry gas hedged, which reduces the impact of HH price changes on their revenues.
All of my forecast/valuation models are "macro driven", so you can download them to Excel and change the commodity prices in each forecast period and the models will automatically earnings, operating cash flow and stock price valuation.