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Devon Energy (DVN) Update - Jan 10

Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:58 am
by dan_s
Press Release January 7, 2021
Devon Energy Corporation ("Devon") (NYSE: DVN) and WPX Energy, Inc. ("WPX") (NYSE: WPX) today announced the successful completion of their previously announced all-stock merger of equals, creating a leading energy producer in the U.S., with an asset base underpinned by a premium acreage position in the economic core of the Delaware Basin. The combined company will operate under the name Devon Energy and be headquartered in Oklahoma City.

"This transformational merger enhances the scale of our operations, builds a dominant position in the Delaware Basin and accelerates our cash-return business model that prioritizes free cash flow generation and the return of capital to shareholders," said Dave Hager, executive chairman. "We are excited to combine our teams and we look forward to executing on our disciplined strategy to create value for all of our stakeholders."

"I want to thank employees for their determined work to complete a transaction of this size and scale in basically just three months," said Rick Muncrief, president and CEO. "This paves the way for our integration to pick up even more steam and establishes Devon as one of the strongest energy producers in the U.S.

"The combined company’s advantaged assets, operating capabilities, balance sheet, and our resolve to pursue efficient, innovative ways of doing business positions Devon to deliver differentiated financial and operational results for many years to come."

In accordance with the merger agreement, WPX shareholders received a fixed exchange of 0.5165 shares of Devon common stock for each share of WPX common stock owned. WPX common stock will no longer be listed for trading on the NYSE.

BOARD OF DIRECTORS

The company’s combined new board of directors consists of 12 members:

David A. Hager, executive chairman of the board

Barbara M. Baumann

John E. Bethancourt

Ann G. Fox

Kelt Kindick

John Krenicki Jr.

Karl F. Kurz

Robert A. Mosbacher Jr.

Richard E. Muncrief

D. Martin Phillips

Duane C. Radtke

Valerie M. Williams

ABOUT DEVON ENERGY

Devon Energy is a leading oil and gas producer in the U.S. with a premier multi-basin portfolio headlined by a world-class acreage position in the Delaware Basin. Devon’s disciplined cash-return business model is designed to achieve strong returns, generate free cash flow and return capital to shareholders, while focusing on safe and sustainable operations. For more information, please visit www.devonenergy.com.

Re: Devon Energy (DVN) Update - Jan 10

Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:35 pm
by dan_s
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Devon Energy based on the terms of the merger agreement and my updated commodity price deck.
First, let me remind everyone that mergers of this size do take time to settle down so that analysts can gain more confidence in their models. Devon will soon announce updated guidance for 2021 that should help, but for now I am using what I believe to be conservative assumptions in my model.

DVN closed at $18.11 on Friday, January 8
Nine energy sector analysts have updated their models and price targets since the merger with WPX was announced in early December. Their price targets range from $19 to $33.
I am raising my valuation by $4 to $22.00. My valuation is 4X annualized cash flow from operations for 2020 to 2022. If Devon's guidance confirms my model assumptions then this high quality company deserves a higher multiple. Stifel's $33.00 price target on 12/31/2020 is definitely within range if WTI oil rises to my "Right Price" of $65/bbl.

Post merger, Devon's production is now approximately 550,000 Boepd; approximately 52% crude oil, 28% natural gas and 20% NGLs.

Devon does pay a dividend, which also justifies a higher valuation multiple than I am using.