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Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 19

Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:43 am
by dan_s
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 11c to $52.47/Bbl, and Brent is up 63c to $55.38/Bbl.


IEA revises oil demand forecasts as renewed lockdowns threaten any meaningful recovery
The IEA cut its 1Q2021 estimate by 600 MBbl/d, however, the agency still foresees a massive drawdown in global inventories of 100 MMBbls
The agency forecasts that consumption will increase by 5.5 MMBbls, in contrasts with its previous estimate of a 5.8 MMBbl recovery
Coronavirus infections flare up in mainland China, threatening the oil demand outlook (Bloomberg)
Some independent refiners have already been forced to cut crude processing rates as fuel demand has dwindled in recent weeks
AEGIS notes that the China situation will be monitored by market participants very closely, as the country was the only major economy to expand during 2020 and served as a bulwark for oil demand
The Baker Hughes oil rig count gained ten rigs to bring the total gas rig count to 287
The major basins, Permian, Eagle Ford, and Denver-Julesburg, added 10, 2, and 2 rigs, respectively

> Natural gas is down 14.6c to $2.591/MMBtu.

Natural gas buyers in China have reduced purchases of high-priced spot LNG for February deliveries as they are unable to pass the high costs on to end-users (Platts)
This comes as Northern China is experiencing energy shortages and efforts to supply its own electricity market with enough piped gas, coal, and LNG imports
China’s LNG imports hit a record high in December 2020 of almost 8 Million metric tons. For reference, China’s 2018 and 2019 peak LNG imports reached ~6.2 and 7 MMT respectively
The Platts JKM (Japan Korea Marker) for spot delivery into North Asia hit a record high of $32.50/MMBtu this week. “Chinese second-tier buyers are trembling just looking at the price surge each day; no one will buy at this level,” a Shenzhen-based end-user told S&P Global
Gas production in the Bakken remains strong despite the region’s rig count remaining flat over the past three months (Williston Herald)
The completion of Outrigger Energy II’s latest processing plant stands add to the gas capture rate
The company announced this week that it finished construction of the Bill Sanderson Gas Processing Plant and pipelines, only eight months after workers broke ground
About 250 MMcf/d of gas can be processed by the new plant
The plant has direct market access to the Northern Border Pipeline system for residue gas and the ONEOK NGL pipeline system for natural gas liquids

On January 15 Platts reported that faltering LNG inventories will likely prompt Japanese power utilities to actively chase for oil in a desperate attempt to keep up with robust domestic winter electricity demand. Local refiners are struggling to produce enough burning fuels and this could lead to a surge in the country's prompt heavy crude and fuel oil cargo imports. The chilling cold has led to fuel oil demand far exceeding the planned supply volumes of the country's largest refiner ENEOS, according to a company official,

On January 15 Reuters reported Norway's Safe labour union on Friday threatened strike action at Equinor's (EQNR-NC) Mongstad refinery and other oil and gas facilities if an upcoming round of wage talks fails to result in agreement. A dozen workers at the Mongstad refinery could go on strike initially, in a first step towards broader labour action, the union said. In case of a protracted conflict, a strike could spread to other onshore facilities, with as many as 800 oil and gas workers potentially involved, Safe said.

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 19

Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:50 am
by dan_s
On January 17 Reuters reported U.S. President-elect Joe Biden is planning to cancel the permit for the $9 billion Keystone XL pipeline project as one of his first acts in office, and perhaps as soon as his first day, according to a source familiar with his thinking. President Donald Trump, a Republican, had made building the pipeline a central promise of his presidential campaign. Biden, who will be inaugurated on Wednesday, was vice president in the Obama administration when it rejected the project as contrary to its efforts to combat climate change. The words "Rescind Keystone XL pipeline permit" appear on a list of executive actions likely scheduled for the first day of Biden's presidency, according to an earlier report by the Canadian Broadcasting Corp (CBC).

On January 15 Reuters reported that Russian oil and condensate production has increased by 150,000 b/d to around 10.19 million b/d in the January 1-14 period from December as output curbs by global producers were eased, according to an industry source.

On January 15 Reuters reported the Iraqi Oil Minister said that Iraq is in “heavy talks” with OPEC and allied oil producers to allow Iraq to postpone compensating for earlier overproduction. He also said that requesting delaying compensation of overproduction doesn’t mean Iraq would evade complying with its commitment to OPEC+ cut deal and blamed overproduction in Kurdistan as the main driver of non-compliance.

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 19

Posted: Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:23 pm
by dan_s
Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (FEB 21) was up $0.62 on the day, to settle at $52.98/Bbl.
> In contrast, NG prompt month (FEB 21) was down $0.191 on the day, to settle at $2.546/MMBtu.