Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 28
Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:27 am
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 56c to $53.41/Bbl, and Brent is up 62c to $56.43/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 3.6c to $2.666/MMBtu. < The Survey Says ...Market expects a 136 Bcf draw in today's EIA gas stats
Aegis Morning Notes:
Crude Oil
A strong crude draw reported by the EIA on Wednesday wasn’t enough to help WTI gain more than 24c on the day yesterday
The EIA reported a whopping 9.9 MMBbl crude inventory draw for the week ended January 22 – The biggest decline in six months
The large draw was mostly concentrated in PADD 3 on the Gulf Coast and the change in imports and exports were the big movers
Imports were 2 MMBbl/d lower than the previous week’s number of 3.79 MMBbl/d and exports rose by 1.1 MMBbl/d to 3.35 MMBbl/d
Iran has been getting unwanted attention recently as companies that track vessel movements have reported upticks in Iranian oil reaching China (Bloomberg)
Indonesia seized two vessels on Sunday that were transferring oil at sea, a common way to disguise the origin of cargoes
Since President Biden took office there has been speculation that the U.S. would take a softer approach to Iran than Trump, who imposed heavy sanctions on Iran
Iran is starting the year as the “biggest wildcard” for oil prices, according to Citigroup’s Ed Morse. Mr. Morse’s opinion is there is unlikely to be a renegotiation of the nuclear deal or sanctions relief from the U.S. until August when a new Iranian government is in place after elections in May
Natural Gas
Cold temperatures threaten gas supply in the Bakken and other areas this week (Platts)
Midwest cities like Chicago and Detroit might need to lean on gas in storage for some of their gas needs as frigid temperatures could cause freeze-offs in the Bakken and lower pipeline inflows when Midwest demand centers need it most
Temperatures in parts of the Midwest are forecasted to dip to about 16°F which would be 11°F below the five-year average
Bakken production has averaged just over 2 Bcf/d in January and Williston. North Dakota is expected to dip far below its 30-year average temperature, likely inducing some freeze-offs
Governmental data for natural gas storage is due today for the week ended January 22. The average Bloomberg economist estimate calls for a 136 Bcf withdrawal from storage
If confirmed, a 136 Bcf draw would be rather weak when compared to both the five-year average and the same period last year
Other than last week (to be reported today), natural gas storage withdrawals have been strong since early January and are likely to be better than the five-year average for the next several weeks < A string of weekly draws larger than the 5-yr average should push the front month NYMEX contract (MAR) over $3.00.
> WTI is up 56c to $53.41/Bbl, and Brent is up 62c to $56.43/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 3.6c to $2.666/MMBtu. < The Survey Says ...Market expects a 136 Bcf draw in today's EIA gas stats
Aegis Morning Notes:
Crude Oil
A strong crude draw reported by the EIA on Wednesday wasn’t enough to help WTI gain more than 24c on the day yesterday
The EIA reported a whopping 9.9 MMBbl crude inventory draw for the week ended January 22 – The biggest decline in six months
The large draw was mostly concentrated in PADD 3 on the Gulf Coast and the change in imports and exports were the big movers
Imports were 2 MMBbl/d lower than the previous week’s number of 3.79 MMBbl/d and exports rose by 1.1 MMBbl/d to 3.35 MMBbl/d
Iran has been getting unwanted attention recently as companies that track vessel movements have reported upticks in Iranian oil reaching China (Bloomberg)
Indonesia seized two vessels on Sunday that were transferring oil at sea, a common way to disguise the origin of cargoes
Since President Biden took office there has been speculation that the U.S. would take a softer approach to Iran than Trump, who imposed heavy sanctions on Iran
Iran is starting the year as the “biggest wildcard” for oil prices, according to Citigroup’s Ed Morse. Mr. Morse’s opinion is there is unlikely to be a renegotiation of the nuclear deal or sanctions relief from the U.S. until August when a new Iranian government is in place after elections in May
Natural Gas
Cold temperatures threaten gas supply in the Bakken and other areas this week (Platts)
Midwest cities like Chicago and Detroit might need to lean on gas in storage for some of their gas needs as frigid temperatures could cause freeze-offs in the Bakken and lower pipeline inflows when Midwest demand centers need it most
Temperatures in parts of the Midwest are forecasted to dip to about 16°F which would be 11°F below the five-year average
Bakken production has averaged just over 2 Bcf/d in January and Williston. North Dakota is expected to dip far below its 30-year average temperature, likely inducing some freeze-offs
Governmental data for natural gas storage is due today for the week ended January 22. The average Bloomberg economist estimate calls for a 136 Bcf withdrawal from storage
If confirmed, a 136 Bcf draw would be rather weak when compared to both the five-year average and the same period last year
Other than last week (to be reported today), natural gas storage withdrawals have been strong since early January and are likely to be better than the five-year average for the next several weeks < A string of weekly draws larger than the 5-yr average should push the front month NYMEX contract (MAR) over $3.00.