EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 11
Posted: Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:16 am
Working gas in storage was 2,518 Bcf as of Friday, February 5, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 171 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 9 Bcf less than last year at this time and 152 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,366 Bcf.
At 2,518 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
My WAGs are that draws from storage will be 260 Bcf and 200 Bcf the next two weeks ending Feb 19. If so, gas in storage will be 20 Bcf below the five-year average on February 19, which is way before I thought it would happen. If March is just normal weather, storage will be 100 Bcf below the five-year average on March 31st. If draws continue through April (even small draws) the delta to the five-year average will grow to over -200 Bcf. Part of the reason for larger than normal draws will be well freeze offs.
https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-weather.html < This is the best website for seeing how weather will impact natural gas demand.
"As of 11:00 AM ET on February 11, the population-weighted nationwide temperature is 38.5°F which is 1.3°F colder than yesterday and 4.2°F colder than the historical average. Accumulated Natural Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) through 11:00 AM EDT tally 13.8 GWDDs which is 0.3 GWDDs greater than yesterday through the same time and 1.6 GWDDs greater than average. This suggests an above-average contribution of temperature to natural gas demand."
In March, 2020 the draws from storage were way below the five-year average.
Over the last ten weeks ending Feb 5, the draws exceeded the five-year average 8 of the 10 weeks. Note that December and January were relatively mild weather.
Stocks were 9 Bcf less than last year at this time and 152 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,366 Bcf.
At 2,518 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
My WAGs are that draws from storage will be 260 Bcf and 200 Bcf the next two weeks ending Feb 19. If so, gas in storage will be 20 Bcf below the five-year average on February 19, which is way before I thought it would happen. If March is just normal weather, storage will be 100 Bcf below the five-year average on March 31st. If draws continue through April (even small draws) the delta to the five-year average will grow to over -200 Bcf. Part of the reason for larger than normal draws will be well freeze offs.
https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-weather.html < This is the best website for seeing how weather will impact natural gas demand.
"As of 11:00 AM ET on February 11, the population-weighted nationwide temperature is 38.5°F which is 1.3°F colder than yesterday and 4.2°F colder than the historical average. Accumulated Natural Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) through 11:00 AM EDT tally 13.8 GWDDs which is 0.3 GWDDs greater than yesterday through the same time and 1.6 GWDDs greater than average. This suggests an above-average contribution of temperature to natural gas demand."
In March, 2020 the draws from storage were way below the five-year average.
Over the last ten weeks ending Feb 5, the draws exceeded the five-year average 8 of the 10 weeks. Note that December and January were relatively mild weather.