Energy Prospectus

This decision from ERCOT comes after we first warned of an imminent crisis on Thursday, when we reported that nat gas prices across the plains states had soared to never before seen levels as a result of a brutal polar vortex blast which literally cut off nattie supply amid wellhead freeze-offs, cutting production receipts just when they're most needed by customers' demand for heating, we said that since the winter blast is expected to last for the duration of the week, it is likely that nattie prices across the plains states could hit GME batshit levels.

Winter blast in plains expected to last through next weekend. Supply is literally frozen.

Other markets moving on the cold:

· Gas in Chicago hit $220 per mmBtu, traders said.

· Physical gas was going for as much as $300 per mmBtu at a Texas hub.

· Oklahoma gas prices have swung anywhere between $50 to the high of $600.

· Spot gas prices across the eastern U.S. remained subdued amid milder temperatures, assessed at anywhere from $4 per to $12 per mmBtu on Friday, pricing data compiled by Bloomberg show.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 12, 2021

As frigid temperatures caused equipment failures, temporarily shutdowns and flaring in at least four nat gas processing plants ...

· Targa Resources’ Benedum Gas Plant in Upton County affected for 7 hours overnight, co. said in a filing

· Occidental Petroleum’s Bennett Ranch Unit RCF Facility in Yoakum County, which is used for EOR, was affected for 9 hours Thursday: filing

· DCP Midstream’s Goldsmith Gas Plant in Ector County affected for 1 hour Thursday: filing

· Occidental’s nearby gas plant, another EOR facility, was affected by DCP Midstream incident: filing

... we hit the proverbial offerless market where any natgas that was available would be purchased at virtually any price, which is why midcontinent prices such as the Oneok OGT nat gas spot exploded from $3.46 one week ago, to $9 on Wednesday, $60.28 on Thursday and an insane $377.13 on Friday, up 32,000% in a few days. This is one of those places where having a limit up circuit breaker could actually be useful, even though there simply is nowhere near enough product to satisfy demand at any price hence the explosive move.

Hubs across the Midcontinent led the surge in prices again Feb. 12 as weather forecasts predicted the coldest temperatures in more than a decade would hit the region over the upcoming holiday weekend. Platts reported that at locations across Kansas, Oklahoma and Eastern Arkansas, hub prices were trading at single-day record highs around $200 to $300/MMBtu. Regional hubs, which typically service only limited local demand, saw fierce competition among shippers, utilities and end-users looking to meet weekend requirements.