EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 18
Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:40 am
Working gas in storage was 2,281 Bcf as of Friday, February 12, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 237 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 105 Bcf less than last year at this time and 57 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,224 Bcf.
At 2,281 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Well freeze offs + BIG increase in demand will push storage below the 5-year average as of February 19.
> I am expecting the draw for the week ending Feb 19 (this week) to be 325 Bcf, which is 197 Bcf above the 5-year average draw of 128 Bcf.
> The draw for the week ending Feb 26 should also be much higher than the 5-year average based on the current 10 day forecast.
> I expect draws to continue through April, pushing storage more than 200 Bcf below the 5-year average by April 30.
> Draws through April will also shorten the refill season and make it difficult or impossible to refill storage before the 2021-2022 winter heating season arrives.
Speculative Traders taking profits today after the report came out, but U.S. natural gas market is going to be very tight all year.
AEGIS note:
Lackluster inventory draw adds to intra-day weakness
EIA reported a draw of -237 Bcf for the week ending 2/12/2021. This was smaller than the median estimate of -256 Bcf.
Today’s stat fell within the expected range, which was -222 Bcf on the more bearish end, and -288 Bcf on the more bullish end.
Prices were down in the five minutes following the announcement, to $3.063, from $3.086 just before 9:30am.
Inventories for the US are now at a deficit of 105 Bcf to last year and a surplus of 57 Bcf to the five-year average.
Stocks were 105 Bcf less than last year at this time and 57 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,224 Bcf.
At 2,281 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Well freeze offs + BIG increase in demand will push storage below the 5-year average as of February 19.
> I am expecting the draw for the week ending Feb 19 (this week) to be 325 Bcf, which is 197 Bcf above the 5-year average draw of 128 Bcf.
> The draw for the week ending Feb 26 should also be much higher than the 5-year average based on the current 10 day forecast.
> I expect draws to continue through April, pushing storage more than 200 Bcf below the 5-year average by April 30.
> Draws through April will also shorten the refill season and make it difficult or impossible to refill storage before the 2021-2022 winter heating season arrives.
Speculative Traders taking profits today after the report came out, but U.S. natural gas market is going to be very tight all year.
AEGIS note:
Lackluster inventory draw adds to intra-day weakness
EIA reported a draw of -237 Bcf for the week ending 2/12/2021. This was smaller than the median estimate of -256 Bcf.
Today’s stat fell within the expected range, which was -222 Bcf on the more bearish end, and -288 Bcf on the more bullish end.
Prices were down in the five minutes following the announcement, to $3.063, from $3.086 just before 9:30am.
Inventories for the US are now at a deficit of 105 Bcf to last year and a surplus of 57 Bcf to the five-year average.