EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Mar 25
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:28 am
Working gas in storage was 1,746 Bcf as of Friday, March 19, 2021, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 36 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 263 Bcf less than last year at this time and 78 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,824 Bcf.
At 1,746 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Over the last 13 weeks (Qtr of a year) the draws from storage have exceeded the 5-year average by 284 Bcf.
The 5-year average gas in storage at the end of March is 1,803 Bcf, so we are definitely going to be below the 5-year average to start the refill season.
Mild weather since Feb 26 has caused draws to be much less than the 5-year average, causing me to lower my prediction for the end of April to a 200 Bcf deficit to the 5-year average. The weather forecast for the next ten days looks mildly bullish for space heating demand. Oil refineries and petrochemical plants ramping up to 90% capacity should increase demand for natural gas. Higher exports YOY in Q2 are key to where gas prices will be in 2H 2021.
AEGIS Notes: EIA reported a draw of -36 Bcf for the week ending 3/19/2021. This was larger than the median estimate of -22 Bcf. Today’s stat fell within the expected range, which was -14 Bcf on the more bearish end, and -39 Bcf on the more bullish end. Prices were up in the five minutes following the announcement, to $2.566, from $2.514 just before 9:30am.
This represents a net decrease of 36 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 263 Bcf less than last year at this time and 78 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,824 Bcf.
At 1,746 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Over the last 13 weeks (Qtr of a year) the draws from storage have exceeded the 5-year average by 284 Bcf.
The 5-year average gas in storage at the end of March is 1,803 Bcf, so we are definitely going to be below the 5-year average to start the refill season.
Mild weather since Feb 26 has caused draws to be much less than the 5-year average, causing me to lower my prediction for the end of April to a 200 Bcf deficit to the 5-year average. The weather forecast for the next ten days looks mildly bullish for space heating demand. Oil refineries and petrochemical plants ramping up to 90% capacity should increase demand for natural gas. Higher exports YOY in Q2 are key to where gas prices will be in 2H 2021.
AEGIS Notes: EIA reported a draw of -36 Bcf for the week ending 3/19/2021. This was larger than the median estimate of -22 Bcf. Today’s stat fell within the expected range, which was -14 Bcf on the more bearish end, and -39 Bcf on the more bullish end. Prices were up in the five minutes following the announcement, to $2.566, from $2.514 just before 9:30am.