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Oil & Gas Prices - March 26

Posted: Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:39 am
by dan_s
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 146c to $60.02/Bbl, and Brent is up 140c to $63.35/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 1.0c to $2.560/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Crude Oil


Yemen Houthi rebels claim more attacks on Saudi Aramco oil sites
According to Saudi Arabia’s state-run news agency, a fire broke out at a fuel-storage tank at a depot in the city of Jazan after being hit by a Houthi missile
Attacks from the rebel group have ramped up in recent months, prompting the Kingdom to seek help from the U.S. and other allies
AEGIS notes that while the Houthi-led attacks rarely cause any significant damage, the frequency of the attacks has increased recently

Downed vessel blocking the Suez Canal may take at least a week to remove (Bloomberg)
The canal blockage is currently holding up about 2 MMBbl/d of oil flow, according to Braemar estimates
Rates for oil tankers have also increased since the canal became disrupted, reaching $17,000/day – its highest levels since June 2020
AEGIS notes that the price response to the canal obstruction has been relatively muted thus far as other bearish factors, namely weakening demand, have pressured oil prices this week. The prompt-contract price is slated for a $1.40/Bbl decrease on the week

Natural Gas

Natural gas storage in the U.S. declined more than market expectations in the week ended March 19
Prompt-month and Summer 2021 gas prices rose following the 36 Bcf drop in inventories, despite likely being the last net pull on storage of the heating season
Storage decreased by 36 Bcf to 1.746 Tcf and was more than the 21 Bcf draw expected by Platts. It was also greater than the 26 Bcf draw reported this time last year but still under the five-year average withdrawal of 51 Bcf, according to the EIA
Platts admitted part of their error on its model was due to underestimating the gains in demand as part of the long recovery from February’s deep freeze in the South Central

Tellurian will not sanction its proposed liquefaction project until it has secured sufficient upstream reserves for the 16 million mt/year first phase of the up to 27.6 million mt/year facility, said CEO Octavio Simoes in an interview with Platts
When asked when Tellurian will make a final investment decision on its Driftwood LNG export terminal in Louisiana, Simoes said, “stay tuned”
Tellurian will not move forward with the LNG project until they secure more drilling rights, given it currently only has a small acreage position in the Haynesville
The company is offering 10 million mt/year of Driftwood supply for a 10-year term for the price of the monthly Platts JKM assessment or Dutch TTF Index, minus the cost of shipping
Tellurian hopes eliminating Henry Hub price from the mix will remove one measure of volatility that has so far prevented it and many of its North American competitors from building

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - March 26

Posted: Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:36 pm
by dan_s
From OilPrice.com

Oil has bounced around with significant volatility this week, dragged down by slow vaccinations, lockdowns, and speculative outflows, but pushed back up on Suez Canal bottlenecks. Analyst sentiment is also all over the place.

Goldman remains bullish. In a Friday note, Goldman Sachs noted bearish fears, but struck an upbeat tone: “We continue to view the decline in oil prices as overshooting the shifts in oil fundamentals,” the bank said. “In particular, we expect a slower ramp-up in OPEC+ production this spring to help offset both slower EM and EU demand recovery and higher Iranian exports, with global demand still set to increase sharply through the summer.”

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - March 26

Posted: Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:14 pm
by dan_s
Closing Prices;
> WTI prompt month (MAY 21) was up $2.41 on the day, to settle at $60.97/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (APR 21) was down $0.013 on the day, to settle at $2.557/MMBtu.

The cargo ship stuck in the Suez Canal is looking more and more like a BIG DEAL that will cause a decline in OECD inventories. Also, Gulf Coast refiners will be ramping up week after week as we draw closer to the peak demand period for transportation fuels.

The pull back from $65/bbl WTI was partly a rational "correction", but primarily a FEAR of more Covid lockdowns. Moves caused by FEAR seldom last.

Next week we will see actual U.S. oil production for February. It will be lower than January and the 3rd monthly decline in a row.