The next 10 months are ALL now over 3 per MBTU with the highest being Jan 2022 at 3.343!
Do you know who the most unhedged gassy name is?
I believe SD is totally unhedged.
NG Futures
Re: NG Futures
I show each company's hedges at the bottom of their forecast spreadsheet. CLR has less than 20% of their 2021 gas hedged with Swaps at $2.94 and none hedged after this year. Also, none of their NGLs are hedged.
CLR's realized ngas+NGL price was $5.68/mcfe in Q1 2021. Why? because they have very good marketing people.
CLR's realized ngas+NGL price was $5.68/mcfe in Q1 2021. Why? because they have very good marketing people.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: NG Futures
I am finishing my review of Antero Resources (AR) this morning. AR gets a $0.10 to $0.20 premium on their high BTU gas and they produce a lot of NGLs.
< ~92% of 2021 ngas now hedged at $2.76/MMBtu
< ~46% of 2022 ngas now hedged at $2.50
All of their production is sold into the "real market" at prevailing prices. Hedges are "paper transactions" tied to index prices that are settled with the counter-party. AR got $3.56/mcf for their gas in Q1 because physical market prices were much higher than index prices.
< ~92% of 2021 ngas now hedged at $2.76/MMBtu
< ~46% of 2022 ngas now hedged at $2.50
All of their production is sold into the "real market" at prevailing prices. Hedges are "paper transactions" tied to index prices that are settled with the counter-party. AR got $3.56/mcf for their gas in Q1 because physical market prices were much higher than index prices.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: NG Futures
I am finishing up my review of the Comstock Resources (CRK) profile.
It should be a good bet for a play on higher dry gas prices because (a) it is trading at just 1.5 X my operating cashflow per share forecast for 2021 and (b) it has a declining volume of gas hedged as we move thru the year (44.9% with $2.54 Swaps in Q2, 41.1% with Swaps at $2.53 in Q3 and 39.3% with Swaps at $2.53). They have more gas hedged with collars that have $2.99 to $3.03 ceilings, so those won't hurt much. In 2H 2021 ~30% of their gas is unhedged. In Q1 2022 only ~10% is hedged with Swaps at $2.59, another 10% with collars that have $3.32 ceilings, so if the gas price averages $3.20 in Q1 2022 (today's strip price for the quarter) they could have a record quarter with operating cash flow of more than $1.25/share for the quarter.
Plus, if strip prices hold, Comstock is going to have a very impressive year-end reserve report.
Their PV10 net asset value should be over $15/share just for P1 reserves.
Comstock has a solid balance sheet, lots of free cash flow today and over 1,900 extremely valuable Haynesville horizontal drilling locations in a $3.00 ngas price world. Back in my Hess Days this one would be a "Screaming Takeover Target" and you'd only have to negotiate the deal with one guy, Jerry Jones.
It should be a good bet for a play on higher dry gas prices because (a) it is trading at just 1.5 X my operating cashflow per share forecast for 2021 and (b) it has a declining volume of gas hedged as we move thru the year (44.9% with $2.54 Swaps in Q2, 41.1% with Swaps at $2.53 in Q3 and 39.3% with Swaps at $2.53). They have more gas hedged with collars that have $2.99 to $3.03 ceilings, so those won't hurt much. In 2H 2021 ~30% of their gas is unhedged. In Q1 2022 only ~10% is hedged with Swaps at $2.59, another 10% with collars that have $3.32 ceilings, so if the gas price averages $3.20 in Q1 2022 (today's strip price for the quarter) they could have a record quarter with operating cash flow of more than $1.25/share for the quarter.
Plus, if strip prices hold, Comstock is going to have a very impressive year-end reserve report.
Their PV10 net asset value should be over $15/share just for P1 reserves.
Comstock has a solid balance sheet, lots of free cash flow today and over 1,900 extremely valuable Haynesville horizontal drilling locations in a $3.00 ngas price world. Back in my Hess Days this one would be a "Screaming Takeover Target" and you'd only have to negotiate the deal with one guy, Jerry Jones.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group