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GTE is picking up the pace

Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2011 3:53 pm
by dan_s
GTE continues to trade well below my Fair Value estimate ($11.75/share), primarily due to Wall Street's fear of anything outside the U.S. (the same reason PMG and TGA trade at deep discounts to Fair Value). GTE has a busy schedule just ahead. The big jump in production will come when Moqueta moves from testing to full development next year. GTE is debt free with a very strong Balance Sheet. It is heavily weighted to oil. - Dan

Comments from their conference call:

Gran Tierra Energy is currently undertaking the busiest period drilling in its history with 4 exploration wells to be drilled in Colombia and Brazil and 7 appraisal and development wells to be drilled in Colombia, Brazil and Argentina.

In Colombia, the Rumiyaco oil exploration well is drilling ahead, and we expect to reach total depth in November. This high-impact well in the Putumayo basin is testing a structural closure identified by 3D seismic data that is positioned in between 2 producing light oil trends.

The Pacayaco-1 sidetrack oil exploration well in the Chaza Block is expected to spud in December and reach total depth before year end. This is a sidetrack to an exploration well drilled early this year that encountered oil shows, but no reservoir. We are now targeting a different location picked after the acquisition and interpretation of a new 3D seismic data earlier this year. The Brillante-2 appraisal well, southeast to appraisal well, began drilling in October and the Brillante gas discovery in the lower Magdalena basin of Colombia. The intent of this well in Brillante southeast 3, which is scheduled to follow in December, is to define adequate reserves to justify the construction of a gas pipeline and commit to long-term gas sales contract. The well is expected to reach total depth of approximately 6,000 feet this month. A new 275-square-kilometer 3D seismic program has been acquired over the field and will be used for future development drilling, planning and potential exploration drilling around the Brillante discovery.

In the Putumayo Basin, we continue to experience success with the Moqueta oil discovery appraisal program. The Moqueta-6 sidetrack was drilled and encountered oil in the Kg sandstone, the U sandstone, the T sandstone, in the Caballos reservoirs. The primary T sandstone in Caballos reservoirs were encountered approximately 250 feet deeper than the equivalent reservoirs in Moqueta-5. The well has been tied into existing infrastructure, and the testing program has been initiated to confirm the nature of the fluids and reservoir productivity of the sandstones with results expected in approximately 1 month. This is being done in concert with ongoing long-term testing to evaluate the reservoirs in the other wells.

Average production from Moqueta field is expected to remain modest this year at approximately 500 barrels of oil per day. Production is expected to begin slowly ramping up in 2012, 2 levels that will be determined once reservoir performance data has been acquired, the full aerial extent of the field has been determined, and a final development concept decided.

In the Llanos Basin, initial testing of the Melero-1 oil discovery in the Garibay Block where Gran Tierra Energy has a 50% interest and the operator CEPSA has a 50% interest, resulted in 922 barrels of oil per day flow rates. In addition, the Jilgero-2 appraisal well in the recent oil Jilgero oil discovery on the same block was drilled and completed. We are currently evaluating the results.

In Brazil, drilling of the GTE-01-BA oil exploration well in the onshore Recôncavo Basin began on October 7 and is drilling ahead. The well is located on Block 142 and is expected to reach total depth this month. Subject to evaluating core and lab results to determine if adequate reservoir is present, a drilling rig will return in December to drill a horizontal sidetrack from the pilot oil at the optimum depth to test the productivity of the reservoir target.

This will be the first of 3 horizontal wells that we plan to drill, with the next 2 to be drilled in the first quarter of 2012. Drilling of the GTE-2-BA oil exploration well on the adjacent Block 129 is expected to start drilling within a week and reach total depth in December of this year. In the offshore of Brazil, StatOil commenced drilling operations on the 1-STAT-7-BAS well on October 1, 2011.

Now in Argentina, Gran Tierra Energy completed workover programs on 16 wells in the Puesto Morales and Puesto Morales Este Blocks in the Neuquen Basin. Based on successful results, we've added 2 additional workovers in the fourth quarter. This is in addition to drilling 6 development wells, 4 before year end and 2 more early next year, and a further development well is planned for the Surubi Field in northern Argentina. In the Rinconada Norte Block of the Neuquen Basin, our partner and the operator, America Petrobras, drilled 3 wells with 1 well testing 1,023 BOE per day, which included 944 barrels of oil -- of light oil per day. Construction of production facilities are currently being planned by the operator.

Finally, moving to Peru, Gran Tierra Energy has identified a drilling location for the first exploration well Block 95, with civil construction initiated in the third quarter of 2011. Drilling is expected to be undertaken in 2012, pending regulatory approvals. This well will further appraise an oil discovery already made on the block, plus explore deeper horizons not penetrated by the discovery well.

Now permitting for station drilling on Block 107 is advancing, with drilling expected to begin in the second half of 2012. Geological and geophysical studies are ongoing on the adjacent Block 133 in preparation for seismic acquisition in 2012. Blocks 123 and 129, the joint venture with operator ConocoPhillips and partner Talisman are continuing preparations to acquire additional infill 2D seismic data in late 2011 and early 2012 on the primary posmics and leads identified in our first seismic program.

Now as part of our continuous and ongoing prioritization and rationalization of our portfolio, paperwork has been submitted by the respective operators for the relinquishment of Blocks 122, 124 and 128 as they are not competitive with the balance of our portfolio.

So in summary, we anticipate that the fourth quarter will be very eventful for Gran Tierra Energy, with exploration and development drilling results expected in Colombia, Brazil and Argentina, in addition to ongoing planning for a robust 2012 drilling program in those countries as well as in Peru. Our strong balance sheet, our vast land position of over 18 million gross acres across 4 countries with a very robust and diverse portfolio of drilling opportunities and operating teams with a track record of creating shareholder value has positioned the company for continued growth in 2012 and beyond. Details of our 2012 program should be finalized in December. I look forward to sharing those plans at that time and sharing our drilling results in the interim as they become available.

Re: GTE is picking up the pace

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 9:53 am
by setliff
no commercial hydrocarbons found----to me that's not progress.

Gran Tierra Energy Announces Progress on Drilling Programs in Colombia, Brazil and Argentina 12/02 06:00 AM

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CALGARY, Dec. 2, 2011 /CNW/ - Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) ("Gran Tierra Energy") , a company focused on oil exploration and production in South America, today announced initial drilling results in Colombia, Brazil and Argentina.

"Substantive progress has been made in our fourth quarter drilling program to date. We have completed the coring and drilling of our first pilot hole for our horizontal drilling program onshore in Brazil, and are now executing on our development drilling program in Argentina with good initial results. In contrast, our initial exploration drilling results in Colombia have been disappointing," said Dana Coffield, President and Chief Executive Officer of Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) . "With one exploration well currently drilling and a second exploration well poised to begin drilling in Colombia, we remain focused on the potential for additional reserve growth this year. We are very excited with where the company is today, with its large prospect inventory on our very large land position, and we anticipate our ongoing exploration and development program, which will continue through 2012, will be funded from cash and cash flow in the coming year," concluded Coffield.

Colombia

Rumiyaco Block (Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) 100% WI and Operator)

The Rumiyaco-1 exploration well reached total depth ("TD���) in basement at 10,648 feet measured depth ("MD") on November 19, 2011. Mud log and electric log data acquired during and after drilling indicate only non-commercial hydrocarbons present.

Sierra Nevada Block (Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) 100% WI and Operator)

Drilling of the Brillante SE-2 delineation well reached TD of 5,520 feet MD on November 6, 2011. This well was drilled on the adjacent fault block to the Brillante SE-1 gas field that was discovered in 2010 in the Lower Magdalena Basin in northern Colombia. Mud log, electric log, and pressure gradient data acquired during and after drilling indicates no reservoir is present, so the well has been plugged and abandoned. New 3-D seismic data indicates the original fault block with the discovery well is larger than originally interpreted from old 2-D seismic data; future drilling will focus on proving additional reserves in that new area.

Llanos-22 Block (CEPSA 55% WI and Operator, Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) 45% WI subject to ANH approval)

The Ramiriqui-1 oil exploration well in the Llanos-22 block, located in the Andean foothills trend of the Llanos Basin, is currently drilling ahead and is expected to reach TD in late December.

Chaza Block (Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) 100% WI and Operator)

The Pacayaco-1 ST1 oil exploration well on the Chaza block of the Putumayo basin is expected to spud on December 10, 2011 and is expected to take 25 days to drill. The Pacayaco-1 ST1 well is targeting the same reservoir intervals present at Gran Tierra Enegy's Costayaco and Moqueta discoveries.

Brazil

REC-T-142 Block (Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) 70% WI & Operator, Alvorada 30% WI)

Drilling of the 1-GTE-01-BA oil exploration well was completed on November 24, 2011. The well is located in Block REC-T-142 in the prolific onshore Recôncavo Basin. This operation commenced with the drilling of a vertical pilot hole from which core samples were acquired from the prospective reservoir section. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) plans to drill a horizontal sidetrack from the pilot hole to test the productivity of the light oil sandstone reservoir target in late December. Two additional horizontal wells testing similar sandstone reservoirs are anticipated to be drilled in early 2012.

REC-T-129 Block (Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) 70% WI & Operator, Alvorada 30% WI)

Drilling of the 1-GTE-02-BA oil exploration well began on November 23, 2011. This well is located in Block REC-T-129 in the Recôncavo Basin. The well is expected to reach a TD of approximately 6,068 feet MD and take approximately 32 days to drill.

REC-T-155 Block (Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) 70% WI & Operator, Alvorada 30% WI)

Drilling of the 3-GTE-03-BA delineation well began on December 1, 2011. This well is located in Block REC-T-155 in the Recôncavo Basin and is situated 1.2 kilometers north of the 1-ALV-2-BA discovery well. Upon completion of the delineation well, this drilling rig is expected to return to Block REC-T-142 to drill the horizontal sidetrack well.

Argentina

Puesto Morales / Puesto Morales Este Blocks, Neuquen Basin

Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) has completed drilling PME.a-1003, the first of four new development wells in the Puesto Morales field, with the purpose of improving recovery and growing production from this mature oil field. The well is being completed for production. Since taking over operatorship in March, the production decline of the last several years has been halted with a workover program on existing wellbores. The rig has moved and is now being used to drill the PMN-1116 development well in the same field.

About Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%)

Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) is an international oil and gas exploration and production company, headquartered in Calgary, Canada, incorporated in the United States, trading on the NYSE Amex Exchange (GTE) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (GTE), and operating in South America. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) holds interests in producing and prospective properties in Colombia, Argentina, Peru, and Brazil. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) has a strategy that focuses on establishing a portfolio of producing properties, plus production enhancement and exploration opportunities to provide a base for future growth.

Gran Tierra Energy's (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) Securities and Exchange Commission filings are available on a web site maintained by the Securities and Exchange Commission at http://www.sec.gov and on SEDAR at http://www.sedar.com.

Forward Looking Statements:

This news release contains certain forward-looking information and forward-looking statements (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under the meaning of applicable securities laws, including Canadian Securities Administrators' National Instrument 51-102 - Continuous Disclosure Obligations and the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The use of the words "expected", "planning", "anticipate", "will", "potential" and derivations thereof and similar terms identify forward-looking statements. In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this news release contains forward-looking statements regarding: Gran Tierra Energy's (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) planned and expected drilling operations in Brazil and Colombia including, without limitation, anticipated drilling locations, depths and timelines; and the anticipated funding of Gran Tierra Energy's (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) ongoing exploration and development program.

The forward-looking statements contained in this news release reflect several material factors and expectations and assumptions of Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) including, without limitation: assumptions relating to log evaluations; that Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) will continue to conduct its operations in a manner consistent with past operations; the accuracy of testing and production results and seismic data; the effects of certain drilling techniques; and the general continuance of current or, where applicable, assumed operational, regulatory and industry conditions. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) believes the material factors, expectations and assumptions reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable at this time but no assurance can be given that these factors, expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct.

The forward-looking statements contained in this news release are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements, including, among others: unexpected technical difficulties and operational difficulties may occur, or the obtaining of environmental permits may be delayed, which could impact or delay the commencement of drilling exploration, development and/or delineation wells; geographic, political and weather conditions can impede testing, which could impact or delay the commencement of drilling exploration, development and/or delineation wells; and the risk that current global economic and credit market conditions may impact oil prices and oil consumption more than Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) currently predicts, which could cause Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) to not fund its 2012 exploration and development program solely from cash and cash flow from operations. Although Gran Tierra Energy's (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) plans for its ongoing exploration and development and the funding thereof are based upon the current expectations of the management of Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) , there may be circumstances where, for unforeseen reasons, a change in such plans may be necessary as may be determined at the discretion of Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) . Should any one of a number of issues arise, Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) may find it necessary to alter its current business strategy and/or capital spending program. Further information on potential factors that could affect Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) are included in risks detailed from time to time in Gran Tierra Energy's (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including, without limitation, under the caption "Risk Factors" in Gran Tierra Energy's (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed November 8, 2011. These filings are available on a Web site maintained by the Securities and Exchange Commission at http://www.sec.gov and on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. The forward-looking statements contained herein are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. The forward-looking statements included in this press release are made as of the date of this press release and Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.89,00$-0.3400,-5.46%) disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as expressly required by applicable securities legislation.


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Re: GTE is picking up the pace

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:29 am
by dan_s
Exploration companies do drill dry holes from time-to-time. This is the same problem we have with FXEN. The market puts too much weight on each exploration well. My forecast model is based on the development of what they have already discovered. I have nothing in my models for exploration wells.

GTE's big jump in production will come when the Moqueta Field moves from testing to full development next year. GTE is debt free with a very strong Balance Sheet. It is heavily weighted to oil. - Dan

Re: GTE is picking up the pace

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 11:51 am
by ko10068
CIBC on GTE:
Ops Update - Big Potential In Brazil,
Disappointment In Colombia, NAV Neutral
Ticker: GTE-TSX
Stock Rating: Sector Outperformer
Price (12/02/2011): C$5.99

Colombia: Four exploration wells drilling/drilled in Colombia. Rumiyaco Block (100% W.I., Operator): Logs from the Rumiyaco-1 exploration well indicated only non-commercial hydrocarbons present. We had 2.2 MMBbls unrisked for this target in our model (0.7 MMBbls risked), or C$0.07/share in risked NAV. Sierra Nevada Block (100% W.I., Operator): The Brillante SE-2 delineation well is dry and abandoned. We had no value in our model for the gas because we are unsure of the discovery volume (too small at this time to build a pipeline to make it commercial) and the market for natural gas. Overall not a good result but no value impact in our model. Llanos-22 Block (45% W.I.): The Ramiriqui-1 oil exploration well is currently drilling ahead (expected to reach TD in late Dec.). Chaza Block (100% W.I., Operator): The Pacayaco-1 ST1 oil exploration well is expected to spud on Dec. 10 (~25 days to drill).

Brazil: In Brazil, GTE is drilling four exploration wells: REC-T-142 Block (70% W.I., Operator) 1-GTE-01-BA well - vertical section drilled, drilling horizontal section in Dec.; REC-T-129 Block (70% W.I., Operator) 1-GTE-02-BA well - expected to reach TD in late Dec.; REC-T-155 Block (70% W.I., Operator) 3- GTE-03-BA well - spudded on Dec. 1; and 1-STAT-7-BAS - offshore well commenced drilling operations Oct. 1, no update provided (GTE 15% W.I., Statoil 45% operated W.I. and Petrobras 40% W.I.). The partners probably do not want any news out on the well.

Argentina: Puesto Morales / Puesto Morales Este Blocks: Four development wells are planned at the Puesto Morales producing field. PME.a-1003 is the first development well being completed for production, with three more to go.

Impact: Slightly negative news, Neutral to target. The only well that affects our NAV is the Rumiyaco where a D&A result has a negligible impact .

Stock is weak today; however, we continue to like the catalysts that the drilling program offers, particularly in Brazil where successful results could open up a significant development program.

We recommend that investors buy on the current weakness. It looks like others on the street were carrying more than us on the Rumiyaco well.

Big near-term catalysts are:

Turbidite play in Brazil…REC-T-142, 1-GTE-01-BA well – Vert. section drilled, drilling Hz section in December. This well tests the concept that productive reservoir can be linked up with a horizontal section. If it works, the company says it can drill 20 more lookalikes. At 5 MMBbls per target each would be ~C$0.25/sh…times 20 equals C$5/share in upside. We have only the first target in our model at a 40% COS (~C$0.10/share).

Offshore Brazil well 1-STAT-7-BAS…nothing in our target now but the company says that the target size in the area is 100-200 MMBbls recoverable. They have a 15% interest so it could be meaningful.

Re: GTE is picking up the pace

Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 2:17 pm
by par_putt
Analyst Actions: Raymond James Keeps "Strong Buy" on Gran Tierra 12/05 12:55 PM

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01:55 PM EST, 12/05/2011 (MidnightTrader) -- Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$5.60,00$-0.1300,-2.27%) released a drilling update, reporting two dry holds in Colombia, with a third well still drilling, according to the Globe and Mail. But Raymond James Ltd. analyst Rafi Khouri reportedly said in a research note today that investors shouldn't be deterred, believing they are only paying for existing discoveries at the no-debt company.

"Anytime investors are offered free exposure to exploration upside potential from a company such as Gran Tierra (no debt, cash flowing, high netbacks and cash in the bank), we strongly urge further adding to positions," Mr. Khouri added.

Raymond James Ltd. maintained a "strong buy" rating and $10.50 price target.

Price: 5.72, Change: -0.11, Percent Change: -1.9

Re: GTE is picking up the pace

Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 3:09 pm
by dan_s
Nice to see that I'm not the only one who sees the value in GTE. Compare the RJ share price forecast to my Fair Value estimate (which you can find on the Sweet 16 Forecast spreadsheet).