Energy Prospectus

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending July 9, 2021

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending July 9, 2021 which was 22,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.8% of their operable capacity last week. < Anything over 90% will keep draining crude oil inventories.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging
4.9 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, up by 347,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 0.1% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.0 million barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 77,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 437.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.
>Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are about 18% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, up by 14.1% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.5 million barrels a day, up by 9.7% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 8.4% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 65.9% compared with the same four week period last year.

Oil prices have been on the seesaw recently, as rising worry about the spread of the latest coronavirus variant—and reports of newly emerging ones—dampened optimism about the global economy somewhat. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

AEGIS Notes: Crude Oil Inventories for the US are now at a deficit of 101.601 million Bbls to last year and a deficit of 40.41 million Bbls to the five-year average.

Also, the traders are trying to figure out what the OPEC+ deal with UAE means to global supply & demand. It is not going to stop the decline in OECD inventories and the world will need every drop of OPEC+ oil by next summer.

By mid-August I think U.S. crude oil inventories might move below the 5-year range. Oil in floating storage (tankers) is very low, so not enough imports are available to bail us out. Maybe Team Biden will reconsider the Keystone XL pipeline when gasoline prices move over $3/gallon.

In case you are worried about the new Covid cases go here:
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/das ... b9cafc8b83

There has been a slight uptick in new cases in Texas, but the number of deaths is still way down from where it was in early 2021.