Opening Oil and Gas Prices
Posted: Wed Jul 28, 2021 8:43 am
From Dan:
AEGIS Notes: Gas steadies near $3.98 ahead of expiry; WTI is trading 47c higher at $72.12
•West Texas Intermediate edged higher Wednesday morning following two consecutive down days
•Prices were buoyed by an industry report pointing to a decline in US fuel and crude stocks
•The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 6.23 MMBbl drop in gasoline inventories. That would be the biggest draw in motor fuel stocks since March if confirmed by the government later today (Bloomberg)
•Investors pulled a whopping $128.7 million from one of the world’s largest oil ETF on Monday, July 19 (Bloomberg)
•On fears of the spreading delta variant, the one-day withdrawal marks the biggest such decrease since October for the US Oil Fund, known as USO
•AEGIS notes that oil prices more than recovered last week following the steep Monday sell-off that sent crude down 7.5%
•EIA crude inventory report due at 9:30 CST
•Estimates (Bloomberg survey):
•US oil inventories: -2,407 MMBbl
•US gasoline inventories: -1,110 MMBbl
•US distillate inventories: -715 MBbl
•US refinery utilization change: +0.30%
•Gas-fired power generation surges as fuel-switching capacity approaches limit
•According to Platts, the per-degree intensity of gas-fired power gen has accelerated despite increasing gas prices, implying that generators could be approaching the limit of available fuel-switching capacity at current prices
•Current gas-fired power gen is near 39.2 Bcf/d, down around 11% from last July’s 44.1 Bcf/d, however when adjusting for temperature, it is only slightly lower
•Since summer 2020, over 7.4 GW of coal-fired gen capacity has been retired, which has likely made gas power burn more inelastic to price
•The prompt-month (Aug ’21) is near its one-week low as weather forecasts have moderated, ahead of expiry
•The two-week total U.S. GFS CDD forecast decreased from 238 CDDs to 230 CDDs
•The dwindling heat has caused prices at Henry Hub to retreat slightly
Weather is great in PV, Mexico. Rain all coming at night.
AEGIS Notes: Gas steadies near $3.98 ahead of expiry; WTI is trading 47c higher at $72.12
•West Texas Intermediate edged higher Wednesday morning following two consecutive down days
•Prices were buoyed by an industry report pointing to a decline in US fuel and crude stocks
•The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 6.23 MMBbl drop in gasoline inventories. That would be the biggest draw in motor fuel stocks since March if confirmed by the government later today (Bloomberg)
•Investors pulled a whopping $128.7 million from one of the world’s largest oil ETF on Monday, July 19 (Bloomberg)
•On fears of the spreading delta variant, the one-day withdrawal marks the biggest such decrease since October for the US Oil Fund, known as USO
•AEGIS notes that oil prices more than recovered last week following the steep Monday sell-off that sent crude down 7.5%
•EIA crude inventory report due at 9:30 CST
•Estimates (Bloomberg survey):
•US oil inventories: -2,407 MMBbl
•US gasoline inventories: -1,110 MMBbl
•US distillate inventories: -715 MBbl
•US refinery utilization change: +0.30%
•Gas-fired power generation surges as fuel-switching capacity approaches limit
•According to Platts, the per-degree intensity of gas-fired power gen has accelerated despite increasing gas prices, implying that generators could be approaching the limit of available fuel-switching capacity at current prices
•Current gas-fired power gen is near 39.2 Bcf/d, down around 11% from last July’s 44.1 Bcf/d, however when adjusting for temperature, it is only slightly lower
•Since summer 2020, over 7.4 GW of coal-fired gen capacity has been retired, which has likely made gas power burn more inelastic to price
•The prompt-month (Aug ’21) is near its one-week low as weather forecasts have moderated, ahead of expiry
•The two-week total U.S. GFS CDD forecast decreased from 238 CDDs to 230 CDDs
•The dwindling heat has caused prices at Henry Hub to retreat slightly
Weather is great in PV, Mexico. Rain all coming at night.