Page 1 of 1
CLR
Posted: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:15 am
by Fraser921
Raymond James Adjusts Price Target on Continental Resources to $43 From $36, Maintains Outperform Rating
MT NEWSWIRES 07/27/2021 10:46 AM
--Susquehanna Adjusts Price Target for Continental Resources to $36 From $28, Maintains Neutral Rating
MT NEWSWIRES 07/26/2021 3:05 PM
CLR & other musings
Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:55 pm
by Fraser921
I was playing around with the model, Dan has q2 Oil and gas sales at 1,094.
Oil sales are unhedged post May and the ones they had only covered 20 % of their volumes. NG is hedged at 2.94 for the swaps and 3.06-3.43 on the collars. Ng averaged in the mid 2.90's in Q2
Of all the names in the sweet 16 this one is my favorite due to the low hedges & oily exposure. Almost 80 % of CLR revenue will be oil based. CLR reports Tuesday, im looking for 25-50 m higher than the current model 1125-1150 m and eps of .55 a beat to first call estimates.
Let see what happens....
=================================================================
Alot of other gassier names hedged at prices 2.50-2.75 and had huge hedge non cash losses and the market this week punished many names.
This week price action for the gassers
EQT high of 21.53 to a low of 17.77 down 17.5 % from the weekly highs
AR high of 14.64 to a low of 12.77 down 12.8 % from the weekly highs
CNX high of 13.00 to a low of 11.77 down 9.5 % from the weekly highs
SWN high of 5.19 to a low of 4.56 down 12.1 % from the weekly highs
RRC high of 16.22 to a low of 14.40 down 11.2 % from the weekly highs
Next week CRK reports and they will have a huge loss due to hedges and debt repayments at higher than face, look for them to be punished.
This weeks CRK high 6.42 low of 5.94 down 17.8 % from the weekly highs.
Re: CLR Dividend raise
Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:48 pm
by Fraser921
Announced after hours dividend increase from .11 to .15 cents quarterly
Re: CLR
Posted: Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:07 pm
by dan_s
Thanks for keeping the Forum updated while I was away. All of the admin posts were sent by me to Sabrina who posted them here for me.
Re: CLR on hedges
Posted: Sat Jul 31, 2021 11:34 pm
by Fraser921
From the last call
>And philosophically, we approached hedging as something that we actually prefer not to do. We think our investors and then an investor base, prefer to be able to participate in the commodity
>Damn right!
we have zero amount of our oil hedge after May.
>This is a major homerun in the making
They have a fcf goal of 1.2 b for the year. I think they have a chance of 2.0 b or more in 2021
>>>Now saying 2.2 billion as of 8/2 update
Re: CLR
Posted: Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:08 am
by dan_s
I agree that CLR has a lot of upside for us. MGY is also unhedged.
The mark-to-market accounting rules for hedges are extremely confusing for investors. IMO they violate the concept of "matching" by putting several years of MTM adjustments into one quarter. The rules were a knee jerk reaction to the Enron case. All I can do is recommend that we focus on operating cash flow as the true indication of how well a company is doing. All of our Sweet 16 are now generating a lot of free cash flow.
CLR has paid off a lot of debt with FCF and they are now raising their dividends.
Re: CLR
Posted: Sun Aug 01, 2021 8:25 am
by Fraser921
Those are excellent points! Thanks, Dan and welcome back.
Re: CLR
Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 3:22 pm
by Fraser921
just reported, blow out rev 1.240 eps .91, 36 beat, 634 m free cash flow!
The Company now projects generating $3.8 billion of cash flow from operations and $2.4 billion of free cash flow (non-GAAP) for full-year 2021 at current strip prices, or approximately 19% free cash flow yield (non-GAAP). Projected full-year 2021 free cash flow (non-GAAP) is more than double the Company's original 2021 guidance.
The Company is resuming its share repurchase program of $1.0 billion, which commenced in second quarter 2019. With $317 million of share repurchases previously executed, $683 million of share repurchase capacity remains available > thats 20 m shares > they only have about
64 m outstanding in the float, 10 m short, slow motion going private
Short Interest (Current Shares Short) 10,000,000
Shares Float 64,450,000
Significantly beat guidance Second quarter 2021 total production averaged 338.7 MBoepd. Second quarter 2021 oil production averaged 166.8 MBopd. Second quarter 2021 natural gas production averaged 1,031.6 MMcfpd.
Increasing ng volumes at 4 bucks! The Company has increased its 2021 annual natural gas production guidance from 900 to 1,000 MMcfpd.
Additionally, the Company is projecting approximately 18% ROCE vs. its previous estimate of 12% for 2021.
Re: CLR
Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 4:28 pm
by Fraser921
Up .80 cents after hours
Do you think Hamm wants to go private?