Energy Prospectus

OPEC+ has decided to keep its production plans in place, according to OPEC.

The previous—and current—plan is for the group to add 400,000 barrels per day in output for its members in October. Future plans include an additional 400,000 barrels per day added back into the production quotas each month until the entire production cut is rolled back in May 2022.

The addition of 400,000 barrels in October is, according to OPEC, in response to an increase in oil demand and falling crude oil inventories, particularly in the United States.

“The meeting noted that, while the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to cast some uncertainty, market fundamentals have strengthened and OECD stocks continue to fall as the recovery accelerates,” OPEC’s statement read, in part.

Last month, the Biden administration had asked the group to increase production to alleviate high gasoline prices—much to the ire of many Biden supporters who felt the request was in stark contrast to his otherwise aggressive green energy plans. <<< A big FU to team Biden

OPEC+ knows that Biden is weak and probably won't stay in office much longer. One of our MBA's is a Russian that married a US Army captain. Her family still lives in Russia. She told me that most Russians had respect for Trump and they could not believe Americans elected Biden.

Saudi Arabia and Russia could care less what Biden wants them to do.

The Covid Delta Variant has not had as much impact on oil demand as most of the "experts" predicted. Oil demand exceeds supply today and OECD inventories of oil based products continues to decline. By this time next year OPEC+ will have zero spare capacity and unless we have "Covid-22" the price of oil will be in triple digits.

Demand for oil is somewhat seasonal; not as much as demand for natural gas. Demand for oil will decline a bit in September and October then ramp up in November as demand for heating oil picks up. A lot of homes in this world still heat with oil. Q1 is always the lowest demand quarter for oil and then it ramps up big in Q2.