Covid Update from Raymond James - Sept 7
Posted: Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:53 am
From the Raymond James Equity Research Team 9-7-2021
It took eight months and 5.5 billion vaccine doses, but the world has finally fought the Delta variant (and its predecessors) to a draw - in fact, better than a draw - at least in an economic sense. By which we mean: the aggregate state of global economic reopening is finally higher than where it was at the beginning of 2021, although still lower than the peak of September/October 2020. Per our 94-country tracker, 368 million people worldwide are currently in lockdown (i.e., subject to substantial business closures), following three months of improvement.
With North America and Europe being lockdown-free since July, the media most of us see daily has not devoted adequate time telling the story of Asia-Pacific's crisis with the Delta variant - even during its worst period earlier in the summer. The impact on supply chains is global, as we discussed a month ago, but vaccination is finally at levels where Asia's economic restrictions are noticeably subsiding. More broadly, the worldwide proliferation of mandatory vaccine policies (i.e., vaccine passports) is supporting the pace of reopening - and, just as importantly, preventing lockdowns from returning despite the backdrop of Delta. As the new school year begins, this issue is highly relevant vis-a-vis schools reopening too.
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This virus (and sadly Dr. Fauci) and many more deadly illnesses will be with us for the rest of our lives, but humans are adaptive creatures. Someone who is very wise told me that "pandemics end when we've had enough of this crap and decide to move on with our lives". Dr. Fauci will never end the pandemic because he is being highly paid to keep up our FEAR level.
It took eight months and 5.5 billion vaccine doses, but the world has finally fought the Delta variant (and its predecessors) to a draw - in fact, better than a draw - at least in an economic sense. By which we mean: the aggregate state of global economic reopening is finally higher than where it was at the beginning of 2021, although still lower than the peak of September/October 2020. Per our 94-country tracker, 368 million people worldwide are currently in lockdown (i.e., subject to substantial business closures), following three months of improvement.
With North America and Europe being lockdown-free since July, the media most of us see daily has not devoted adequate time telling the story of Asia-Pacific's crisis with the Delta variant - even during its worst period earlier in the summer. The impact on supply chains is global, as we discussed a month ago, but vaccination is finally at levels where Asia's economic restrictions are noticeably subsiding. More broadly, the worldwide proliferation of mandatory vaccine policies (i.e., vaccine passports) is supporting the pace of reopening - and, just as importantly, preventing lockdowns from returning despite the backdrop of Delta. As the new school year begins, this issue is highly relevant vis-a-vis schools reopening too.
-------------------------
This virus (and sadly Dr. Fauci) and many more deadly illnesses will be with us for the rest of our lives, but humans are adaptive creatures. Someone who is very wise told me that "pandemics end when we've had enough of this crap and decide to move on with our lives". Dr. Fauci will never end the pandemic because he is being highly paid to keep up our FEAR level.
Agreed