Sweet 16 Update - Sept 11
Posted: Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:09 pm
The Sweet 16 increased just 0.23% during the week ending September 10, 2021 and is now up 99.7% YTD. The S&P 500 Index declined by 2.05% (one of the worst weeks of the year), but it is still up 18.7% YTD.
Only six of the Sweet 16 (XEC, CRK, CKR, LPI, PXD, RRC) were up during the week, but they were up enough to offset small declines on the other ten.
Laredo Petroleum (LPI) now leads the pack, up 217.11% followed by Antero Resources (AR) that is up 192.29% YTD.
I would never have guest this, the two worst preforming stocks are Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) up 32.76% and EOG Resources (EOG) up 34.53%.
Comstock Resources (CRK), which has been lagging the pack all year has gained 64.3% in the last three weeks and is now up 83.98% YTD. Sometimes it takes time for the Wall Street Gang to see what I see. CRK is still trading at a 127% discount to my fair value estimate of $18.25 per share.
I'm sure that Talos Energy (TALO) had to shut in a lot of their production thanks to Hurricane Ida, but the share price has held up. My forecast/valuation model does assume that Q3 production would be down because of tropical storm activity, but it may be worse than I thought. Higher natural gas prices will offset some of the "pain".
EQT Corp. (EQT) is the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. by a wide margin. They closed the Alta Resources Acquisition on July 21, 2021 and I expect the Company to report Q3 results that beat the current First Call EPS and operating cash flow estimates. If Henry Hub natural gas prices average more than $4.50 in Q4, EQT is going to report "stunning" Q4 results.
I am considering moving Matador Resources (MTDR) and Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) into the Sweet 16 since they both have market-caps over $3 Billion.
Only six of the Sweet 16 (XEC, CRK, CKR, LPI, PXD, RRC) were up during the week, but they were up enough to offset small declines on the other ten.
Laredo Petroleum (LPI) now leads the pack, up 217.11% followed by Antero Resources (AR) that is up 192.29% YTD.
I would never have guest this, the two worst preforming stocks are Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) up 32.76% and EOG Resources (EOG) up 34.53%.
Comstock Resources (CRK), which has been lagging the pack all year has gained 64.3% in the last three weeks and is now up 83.98% YTD. Sometimes it takes time for the Wall Street Gang to see what I see. CRK is still trading at a 127% discount to my fair value estimate of $18.25 per share.
I'm sure that Talos Energy (TALO) had to shut in a lot of their production thanks to Hurricane Ida, but the share price has held up. My forecast/valuation model does assume that Q3 production would be down because of tropical storm activity, but it may be worse than I thought. Higher natural gas prices will offset some of the "pain".
EQT Corp. (EQT) is the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. by a wide margin. They closed the Alta Resources Acquisition on July 21, 2021 and I expect the Company to report Q3 results that beat the current First Call EPS and operating cash flow estimates. If Henry Hub natural gas prices average more than $4.50 in Q4, EQT is going to report "stunning" Q4 results.
I am considering moving Matador Resources (MTDR) and Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) into the Sweet 16 since they both have market-caps over $3 Billion.