Note from MKM Partners - Sept 13

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dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Note from MKM Partners - Sept 13

Post by dan_s »

The energy sector reflects NYMEX ~$54 oil and ~$2.65 natural gas. Our NYMEX 2021 oil price
is ~$66 and equilibrium outlook is $65. Our NYMEX 2021 natural gas price is ~$3.20, and
equilibrium outlook is $2.90. Our commodity price deck implies sector median valuation upside
of ~54%.
Oil-oriented businesses (>50% oil) have ~60% upside, natural gas-oriented producers
(<20% oil) have ~33% upside and combo-composition companies (20%-50% oil) have ~54%
upside. Our composite equilibrium Mont Belvieu NGL price (including ethane) is 45%-50%
of NYMEX oil. Companies with superior combined full-cycle returns, value upside, and less
financial leverage include EOG, Pioneer, Shell, Diamondback, Hess, and PDC.

Note that their opinion that the energy sector has 54% upside is based on much lower oil, ngas and NGL prices than we have today.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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