Oil & Gas Prices - Oct 12
Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:27 am
Opening Prices:
> WTI is down 38c to $80.14/Bbl, and Brent is down 28c to $83.38/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 12.6c to $5.219/MMBtu. < Compares to the Q4 ngas price of $4.75 that I am using in all of my forecasts.
We have a live webinar today at 10AM CT
AEGIS Notes
Crude Oil
Oil futures were little changed Tuesday morning after closing 1.5% higher on Monday
> A demand boost to oil is being triggered by a need for alternative power generation fuels like diesel and fuel oil
> OPEC+’s conservative approach to adding back supply is also adding upward pressure to price
UBS increased its oil-price forecasts by $5/Bbl across all tenors (Bloomberg)
> WTI is seen at about $77/Bbl over the next 12 months, wrote analysts including Giovanni Staunovo
> The bank said with oil inventories seen falling at a fast pace over the coming weeks; Brent could re-test Oct. 2018’s high of $86.74/Bbl
> Gas-to-oil switching could add 500,000 Bbl/d of demand and a boost from more flights to the U.S. could add 100,000 Bbl/d of demand in 4Q 2021 and 1Q 2022
Natural Gas
The prompt-month (Nov ’21) natural gas contract is trading 10c lower, near $5.223, its lowest intra-day mark since September 24
> Current weather forecasts for October have it pegged as the warmest going back to 2005, which has caused Residential-Commercial demand forecast to come in well below normal
> The warm weather has added, by our estimates, another 100-Bcf to the end-of-season storage forecast. Our current estimate is somewhere between 3.6 and 3.65 Tcf
Bidding War:
> The prompt TTF contract lost 81.5c, or 2.7 %, to trade near $28.924/MMBtu, while JKM gained 3.2%, or $1.02 to $33.080, during yesterday’s trading session
> Feedgas demand at U.S. LNG facilities is up by about 0.3 Bcf/d today, at around 10.44 Bcf/d.
> Cove Point LNG seems to be back online as flows have increased by 0.7 Bcf/d, which was partially offset by a reduction of 0.5 Bcf/d to Freeport LNG
> European inventories are filling up fast, thanks to mild weather
> Over the last ten sessions, strong flows into European natural gas storage facilities have been higher at this stage than any year in the past decade
> The TTF price has now fallen more than 25% over the last week from $39.45 to $28.92, as storage inventories inch closer to healthy levels
> WTI is down 38c to $80.14/Bbl, and Brent is down 28c to $83.38/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 12.6c to $5.219/MMBtu. < Compares to the Q4 ngas price of $4.75 that I am using in all of my forecasts.
We have a live webinar today at 10AM CT
AEGIS Notes
Crude Oil
Oil futures were little changed Tuesday morning after closing 1.5% higher on Monday
> A demand boost to oil is being triggered by a need for alternative power generation fuels like diesel and fuel oil
> OPEC+’s conservative approach to adding back supply is also adding upward pressure to price
UBS increased its oil-price forecasts by $5/Bbl across all tenors (Bloomberg)
> WTI is seen at about $77/Bbl over the next 12 months, wrote analysts including Giovanni Staunovo
> The bank said with oil inventories seen falling at a fast pace over the coming weeks; Brent could re-test Oct. 2018’s high of $86.74/Bbl
> Gas-to-oil switching could add 500,000 Bbl/d of demand and a boost from more flights to the U.S. could add 100,000 Bbl/d of demand in 4Q 2021 and 1Q 2022
Natural Gas
The prompt-month (Nov ’21) natural gas contract is trading 10c lower, near $5.223, its lowest intra-day mark since September 24
> Current weather forecasts for October have it pegged as the warmest going back to 2005, which has caused Residential-Commercial demand forecast to come in well below normal
> The warm weather has added, by our estimates, another 100-Bcf to the end-of-season storage forecast. Our current estimate is somewhere between 3.6 and 3.65 Tcf
Bidding War:
> The prompt TTF contract lost 81.5c, or 2.7 %, to trade near $28.924/MMBtu, while JKM gained 3.2%, or $1.02 to $33.080, during yesterday’s trading session
> Feedgas demand at U.S. LNG facilities is up by about 0.3 Bcf/d today, at around 10.44 Bcf/d.
> Cove Point LNG seems to be back online as flows have increased by 0.7 Bcf/d, which was partially offset by a reduction of 0.5 Bcf/d to Freeport LNG
> European inventories are filling up fast, thanks to mild weather
> Over the last ten sessions, strong flows into European natural gas storage facilities have been higher at this stage than any year in the past decade
> The TTF price has now fallen more than 25% over the last week from $39.45 to $28.92, as storage inventories inch closer to healthy levels