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Talos Energy (TALO) Update - Oct 12

Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:00 am
by dan_s
I will update my forecast/valuation model for TALO after today's webinar. Everything said below lines up with my forecast, so my valuation should remain at $26.50.

HOUSTON, Oct. 12, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Talos Energy Inc. ("Talos" or the "Company") (NYSE: TALO) today provided selected estimated operational and financial results for the third quarter of 2021, following operational disruptions caused by Hurricane Ida, and updated its production guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2021.

Preliminary estimated results for the third quarter of 2021 include:

Average daily production between 56.0 and 56.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent ("MBoe/d"), inclusive of several weeks of shut-in production resulting from Hurricane Ida. That represents between 10.0 and 11.0 MBoe/d of hurricane downtime compared to the Company's projections for the quarter pre-hurricane. The production for the quarter was approximately 69% oil and 77% liquids.

Realized prices of approximately $68 per barrel of oil, $30 per barrel of NGLs and $4.50 per Mcf of natural gas.

Realized hedge losses of approximately $72 million in the quarter.

Production disruptions following Hurricane Ida were prolonged due to complications affecting third-party downstream service providers. Key refiners, crude oil terminals and pipelines were not fully returned to operation for several weeks due to a mix of storm-related damage and lack of power. The Company's assets did not experience significant damage and the majority have been returned to normal operations, producing an average of approximately 66.5 MBoe/d in the last week of September of 2021. Approximately 4.0 MBoe/d of production remains offline across various assets, primarily due to repairs being made to pipelines and other downstream facilities. Talos expects the remaining impacted assets to return to production over the coming weeks and months as the third-party repairs are finalized.

Despite these disruptions, Talos continues to expect annual production near the lower end of the previously guided annual range, and expects production for the fourth quarter of 2021 between 64.0 and 66.0 MBoe/d. All other previously guided line items (including operating expenses, G&A and capital expenditures) remain within the existing range of guidance. Additionally, the Company still expects to generate meaningful free cash flow for the full year 2021.

ABOUT TALOS ENERGY

Talos Energy (NYSE: TALO) is a technically driven independent exploration and production company focused on safely and efficiently maximizing long-term value through its operations, currently in the United States and offshore Mexico, both upstream through oil and gas exploration and production and downstream through the development of future carbon capture and storage opportunities. As one of the Gulf of Mexico's largest public independent producers, we leverage decades of technical and offshore operational expertise towards the acquisition, exploration and development of assets in key geological trends that are present in many offshore basins around the world. With a focus on environmental stewardship, we are also utilizing our expertise to explore opportunities to reduce industrial emissions through our carbon capture and storage collaborative arrangement along the U.S. Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico. For more information, visit www.talosenergy.com.

Re: Talos Energy (TALO) Update - Oct 12

Posted: Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:16 pm
by dan_s
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for TALO and I have increased my valuation by $1.50 to $28.00 per share. I had previously lowered by valuation from $30.00 to $26.50 to account for Hurricane Ida shut-ins and estimated damage. Since the Company reports no serious damage from the hurricane and that all shut-in production should be back online soon I have raised my valuation multiple from 4.0 to 4.5 X operating cash flow per share.

Once all of their shut-ins are back on-line, Talo's production should be approximately 70,000 Boepd. My 2022 forecast is based on the assumption that full year production will be 72,000 Boepd. Talos does have hurricane risk, so I forecast that ~10,000 Boepd will be lost in Q3 each year. It isn't "lost", but just left in the ground.

My commodity price assumptions for 2022 now look too conservative. If the WTI oil price averages $80/bbl in 2022, Talo's operating cash flow should increase from approximately $5.00 per share this year to over $10.00 per share next year. TipRank's operating cash flow per share forecast for 2022 is currently $7.54, but it has not been updated for over a month.

All of Talo's oil production is sold into the Gulf Coast at a premium to WTI.