Energy Prospectus

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 95c to $81.39/Bbl, and Brent is up $1.08 to $84.26/Bbl.
> Natural gas is up 22.1c to $5.811/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Oil prices move higher as IEA said the global natural gas crisis is spilling over into oil
> Record gas prices are boosting consumption for other fuels and could add about 500 MBbl/d of oil use over the next six months, the IEA said
> AEGIS notes that many other banks and analysts are predicting similar gas-to-oil switching figures

OPEC+ bosses tout oil market stability and claim that their supply plan is working well (Bloomberg) < It is definitely working for the Saudi's bank account.
> Oil’s stability relative to natural gas and coal underscore that OPEC+ is doing a good job balancing supply and demand, said the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia
> The Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the OPEC+ cartel should stick with gradual production increase, despite calls from traders and even the White House for it to move faster < Cartel members are laughing all the way to their banks at Joe Biden.
> AEGIS notes that OPEC+ decided to raise production next month by its previously agreed-upon 400 MBbl/d, despite calls for more supply

Natural Gas

U.S. natural gas futures are up this morning, with the prompt-month (Nov ’21) contract trading 22.1c higher at $5.811/MMBtu
> The EIA is expected to report a 95-Bcf injection for the week ending October 8, which would be more than the five-year average build of 69-Bcf during the corresponding week. Analysts estimates ranged from a build of 84 Bcf to 109 Bcf
> A build within this range would bring total stocks near 3.383 Tcf and expand the deficit to the five-year average to around 199 Bcf
> The current end-of-season storage number settled at 3.635 Tcf on ICE

Vitol sees gas demand increasing in “every corner of the world.”
> Vitol’s head of short-term LNG, Stuart Sanders, says the outlook for LNG is positive after “we have come out of the period of a low-price environment” which delayed investments in LNG infrastructure
> Stuart Sanders also mentioned that the volatility has led to “a lot of buyers and sellers relying more on traders and trading entities to be able to manage companies’ market exposure,” but declined to comment on whether any trading companies have been forced to close shorts out because of margin calls

The Energy Report: Biting The Hand
By Phil Flynn (Oct 14, 2021 09:45AM ET)

President Joe Biden continues to bite the hand that feeds him and feeds the rest of the economy. In a speech that was more like the speech of a failing socialist dictator than an American president, he lashed out at the private sector for the inflation and bottleneck problems while refusing to acknowledge that many of the problems have been exasperated by his extreme left-leaning policies.

In fact, despite Biden’s angry diatribe, it seems they are coming to their senses and for the first time might be reaching out to the U.S. oil and gas industry for help in reigning in sharply higher oil and gas prices instead of begging OPEC for more oil.

OPEC of course laughed off the Biden administration’s pleas for more oil. Joe Biden’s hard line with Saudi Arabia and Russia backfired and Biden’s pleas for more oil were rejected time and time again. Unnamed OPEC sources were saying it was hypocritical of Biden to ask for more oil, not to mention the fact they were in no mood to help him because of the way he strained relations with Saudi Arabia.

Now the Biden administration is coming back to the U.S. oil and gas industry that he has derided and accused of manipulating prices while threatening them with investigations, carbon taxes, and royalties taxes. Not to mention the fact that Biden declared war on the energy industry with a temporary drilling halt on federal lands and killing the Keystone pipeline while openly warning banks and investors that they may be held responsible for investing in oil and gas if they are determined to damage the planet.

This comes as Biden is facing pressure from soaring inflation that hit 5.4% and plunging poll ratings. The inflation rate is being driven in large part by surging oil and gas prices that might have been calmed by US oil producers if it were not for the fact that the Biden administration has created a toxic environment for the industry, painting them as the enemy as opposed to an American economic asset.

These failures by the Biden administration, as I predicted would happen, have led to tight supply and sharply higher prices. Even the normally subdued Energy Information Administration (EIA) is predicting sharply higher heating bills this winter. The EIA in their ‘Winter Fuels Outlook’ says that they expect nearly half of U.S. households that heat primarily with natural gas will spend 30% more than they spent last winter on average—50% more if the winter is 10% colder-than-average and 22% more if the winter is 10% warmer-than-average.

They expect the 41% of U.S. households that heat primarily with electricity will spend 6% more—15% more in a colder winter and 4% more in a warmer winter. The 5% of U.S. households that heat primarily with propane will spend 54% more—94% more in a colder winter and 29% more in a warmer winter. The 4% of U.S. households that heat primarily with heating oil will spend 43% more—59% more in a colder winter and 30% more in a warmer winter.

What is clear is that based on what I am seeing, they are low balling these numbers. As I have written time and time again, the risk for these fuels is still to the upside. Also to the upside of these forecasts.

“The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late Wednesday that U.S. crude supplies rose by 5.2 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 8, according to sources. The API, which released its report a day later than usual because of Monday’s Columbus Day holiday, also reportedly showed inventory declines of 4.6 million barrels for gasoline and 2.7 million barrels for distillates.

"Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub, meanwhile, edged down by 2.3 million barrels for the week, sources said. Inventory data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Thursday. On average, the EIA is expected to show crude inventories down by 500,000 barrels, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Platts. The survey also calls for supply declines of 400,000 barrels for gasoline and 800,000 barrels for distillates."

Natural gas also is back on an upward track as weather forecasts are starting to put some cold in our future. Expectations for today’s EIA report are around 99 bcf. We need a string of triple-digit injections to make sure we don’t go into winter undersupplied! Remind me…who put in a drilling moratorium that slowed the production of natural gas?

Gas & Oil prices going higher it appears. I agree with Gutfeld on Biden. Biden served his purpose in winning the election, (that subject is still open for debate); he knows he was put there as a place-card holder, a "transition" POTUS. He's obviously in over his head, in rapid mental decline, can't put a complete sentence together without stumbling. He's acting like he doesn't give a dam now, staff does an early afternoon lid every day, he runs home to Delaware every chance. The media & Democrats will use every liberal dog-whistle in their playbook to distract the public from their own obvious failures. As an Army veteran who served this country, it's very, very difficult to witness the open borders insanity and assault on our core values, and hear what they are doing to our military. Now just hoping we can survive until 2024. I'm shocked to see how far-left this gang of Democrats have turned. Dr King would be called an Uncle Tom by the race baiting gang in power now. God bless America, and treat your fellow man as you would want to be treated.