Energy Prospectus

EQT’s CEO calls for more American shale investment to end energy crisis. Bloomberg.
The largest U.S. natural gas driller is using the global energy crisis to renew his call for more investment in domestic infrastructure such as pipelines, which he says will enable increased exports and ease shortages. U.S. gas drillers could increase supplies by about 20% if not for pipeline and export constraints, EQT Corp. CEO Toby Rice said in an interview Thursday. Gas fields far from major population centers and export hubs can’t fully open the taps because of a dearth of pipe capacity and too few export facilities, he said.

EQT is up more than 60% YTD, but it is still trading below book value. The current share price makes no sense because EQT is the largest natural gas producer in the US and the present value of its assets are now much higher than book value. My valuation of $41.00 is based on what now looks like a very conservative natural gas price forecast of $3.50/MMBtu for 2022.

TipRanks: "On 10/14/2021 BofA Securities analyst Doug Leggate raised the price target on EQT Corp. (NYSE: EQT) to $35.00 (from $26.00) while maintaining a Buy rating."

PITTSBURGH, Oct. 12, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) plans to issue its third quarter 2021 financial and operating results after market close on Wednesday, October 27, 2021, and will host a conference call with securities analysts on Thursday, October 28, 2021, beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET.

EQT closed the Alta Resources Acquisition on July 21st. The deal increases EQT's production by close to a Bcfe per day, with half included in Q3 results and the full amount taking EQT's production to approximately 5.7 Bcfepd in Q4. The Company's production mix in Q4 should be approximately 94.7% natural gas, 4.8% NGLs and just 0.5% crude oil. Based on my forecast, EQT should generate over $3.6 Billion of cash flow from operations and over $2.2 Billion of free cash flow in 2022. If EQT's realized natural gas price were to average $4.00/MMBtu in 2022, they should generate over $5 Billion of operating cash flow, over $13.50/share.

AR, EQT and RRC are all expected to report Q3 results the last week of October. I am eager to see what they say about natural gas and NGL prices in the Northeast. All three are gassers that get most of their production from the Marcellus and Utica shale play in PA, Ohio and West Virginia.

5 billion forgone,wow

I give the man credit for owning up to his "mistake"

I think if these companies only bought puts, they would think harder about what they are doing. Cash free swaps is a fools game. I'm sure if they just bought puts, it would of been just a fraction of the 5 billion it is ultimately cost the shareholders of EQT. Also, mgt should forgo bonus, it's called accountability
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QT Corp. (NYSE:EQT) has exited ~20% of its natural gas hedges for Q4 and 10% for 2022, CEO Toby Rice tells Bloomberg, after surging gas futures have caught many U.S. producers off-guard following years of depressed prices.
"Obviously, we were wrong," Rice said in the interview. "I don't think anybody anticipated this type of price movement."
A Bloomberg analysis estimates contracts trailing current market prices could cost EQT more than $5B through the end of next year, based on a major increase in hedging activity disclosed by the company in July.
While EQT has locked in prices for most of next year's projected output, Rice says the company has hedges in place for less than 15% of its 2023 supplies.
"Our free cash flow forecast is exposed to what we think is a pretty bullish natural gas setup," the CEO says.

Now that he has exited some of his bad hedges, naturally
the price collapses lol

Sell low, cover high

My advice, buy puts, and or stop producing if prices are low