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Sweet 16 Update - Nov 7

Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:04 am
by dan_s
The Sweet 16 gained 10.56% during the week ending November 5 despite a decline in the oil price. It is now up 166.01% YTD.
The S&P 500 Index also had a good week; gaining 2.46%. It is now up 25.07% YTD.

The Sweet 16 summary spreadsheet will be posted to the EPG website home page late this afternoon. I need to update all of the balance sheet info on the first tab and I want to update my valuations for Earthstone (ESTE) and Talos Energy (TALO) before posting it.

I have already updated my valuations for nine companies, which I discussed at the end of yesterday's podcast. Comstock Resources (CRK) valuation has been lowered by $4 to $20. It closed on Friday at $9.68. There is nothing wrong with CRK. It is up 121.51% YTD and I think it should double for us within six months. It is a pure play on natural gas with over 99% of their production being dry gas from the Haynesville Shale.

Callon Petroleum (CPE) now leads the pack, up 360% YTD. It is still trading at a 45% discount to my current valuation.

Continental Resources (CLR) announced a $3.25 billion acquisition from Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) that should close mid-December and add another core area for CLR. I like the deal, but it surprised the Wall Street Gang. Buy the dip if you believe oil prices will stay over $80/bbl.

After I update each company's forecast/valuation model I will post my comments here.

The reason the Sweet 16 is doing so well this year is because of the "Big Paradigm Shift" that I told you was coming. It is now clear to everyone except the Far Left Wackos that wind and solar will never replace oil & gas. They won't even replace coal. OPEC+ will run out of spare capacity within six to nine months. When that fact sinks in, just about when the peak demand period arrives for oil, we should see oil go over $100/bbl.
> Per EIA's recent long-term Energy Outlook, global energy demand will increase by 50% from 2020 to 2050.
> Oil and natural gas supplies will need to increase by 20% and 30% to meet ever growing energy demand by the Earth ever growing population.
> China and Russia did not attend the Climate Change Wacko meeting in Glasgow, Scotland ("COP26") because they don't believe the Woke Agenda will work. They are happy to watch the West go bankrupt pursuing the foolish goals of the Paris Climate Accord.
> The Green New Deal is too expensive and it won't lower carbon emissions. FEAR is being used to justify higher taxes.

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Nov 7

Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2021 10:31 am
by Fraser921
Dan that's going to be a tough act to follow in 2022..

But the question is, how much higher can /will prices go

Many still don't buy into the paradigm shift. Therefore, I stay bullish

============================================================

Biden Energy Secretary laughed and shrugged off a question about what they can do to stop high prices. They still don't get it.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/bi ... -hilarious

"Bloomberg host Tom Keene noted America's rising gas prices and asked the energy secretary, "What is the Granholm plan to increase oil production in America?"

Granholm immediately began laughing. "That is hilarious," she said. Would that I had the magic wand on this."

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Nov 7

Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2021 1:06 pm
by dan_s
There is nothing the government can do that increase US oil production in the short term. Plus, the Democrats will not do anything that even appears to help the "evil" producers of oil, gas, NGLs and coal.
We are in for an extended period of high oil prices and unless we have an extremely mild winter, high natural gas and electricity prices.

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Nov 7

Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:29 pm
by dan_s
The main Sweet 16 spreadsheet has been posted to the EPG website.