Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 3,505 Bcf as of Friday, December 3, 2021, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 59 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 356 Bcf less than last year at this time and 90 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,595 Bcf.
At 3,505 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Looking at my long-range weather forecasts and my "crystal ball", I expect the next two reports (for weeks ending December 10 and 17) to show draws less than the 5-year average. Then I expect the draws for the last two weeks of 2021 (for weeks ending December 24 and 31) to be much higher than the 5-year average draws of 114 Bcf and 101 Bcf. Based on my "Wild Ass Guess", working gas in storage should be ~150 Bcf below the 5-year average at year-end.

It is all about the weather for the next four months.

As long as LNG exports remain high, the U.S. gas market will remain tight.

EIA: U.S. liquefied natural gas export capacity will be world’s largest by end of 2022.
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity has grown rapidly since the Lower 48 states first began exporting LNG in February 2016. In 2020, the United States became the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, behind Australia and Qatar. Once the new LNG liquefaction units, called trains, at Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana are placed in service by the end of 2022, the United States will have the world’s largest LNG export capacity.