Energy Prospectus

Old Man Winter and La Nina are working on a Climate Change Christmas Gift of their own that could send natural gas and propane prices a lot higher.
-------------------------
"Potential Polar Vortex Event" Could Spark Bullish Reversal In NatGas
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, DEC 09, 2021 - 09:20 PM

Since mid-October, U.S. natural gas futures have been beaten down 40% as the narrative of colder weather and tight supplies quickly flipped and crushed bullish traders. As the Northern Hemisphere winter is less than two weeks away, new weather models suggest "significantly colder" temperatures could return for parts of the U.S. later this month into early 2022.

Meteorologists at private weather forecasting firm BAMWX expect a bullish setup for natgas futures. They say the narrative is flipping from warmer weather to the complete opposite as an Arctic polar vortex could plunge parts of the U.S. into a much colder weather pattern in January than today's currently mild, above-trend temperatures.

"Seeing an interesting pattern developing ahead leading up to Christmas and into early January '22, as higher pressure looks to finally re-establish towards Alaska and the North Atlantic, pushing cold from the Arctic down into the US (after a record warm start to the month). If the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) can continue to progress through phase 7 into 8 (and possibly into 1) mid to late December, this can also increase the potential for a Polar Vortex displacement event, sending more consistent cold air deeper into the US…a big risk to watch for the energy markets ahead," Kirk Hinz, the chief meteorologist at BAMWX, noted.

Read more: https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/proba ... tgas-setup

Weather Bell was also forecasting this...winter over the last few years has started later (January and February). Gassers should have a great first QTR is this transpires, futures should move higher.

All of us need to keep in mind that natural gas and NGL prices are MUCH HIGHER than they were a year ago.

Go here https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Look at a 1 year chart to remember how low gas prices were at this point a year ago ($2.48).

Trading Economics:
"US natural gas futures firmed above $3.80 per million British thermal units, underpinned by higher European gas prices and a larger-than-expected draw in domestic inventories. Government data showed national natural gas stockpiles shrank by 59 bcf in the first week of the month, more than market expectations of a 54 bcf draw. Still, upward pressure remained weak compared to the 11.5% slump seen on December 6h after traders digested forecasts of mild weather for the third week of the month. Temperatures in the US have been warmer than usual throughout the winter heating season, raising concerns about heating needs. At the same time, natural gas inventories stood just 2% below normal levels before the start of the winter heating season, enough gas for the coming winter months. Since peaking at a 12-year high of $6.30 on October 5th, US natural gas futures have plunged more than 40% and diverged from the UK and the Dutch contracts, which continued to trade close to record highs."

We are one Polar Vortex away from $5.00 ngas and that will probably happen the last week of December.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... 1-2022-fa/

Stratospheric Polar Vortex returns for Winter 2021/2022, together with a strong easterly wind anomaly high above the Equator, impacting the Winter season

Thanks for posting the article. As I get older, I get more interested in the weather for some reason.

Near the end of the article note this: "Historically, a La Nina winter has around 60-75% chance of producing a stratospheric warming event. It has produced them in the past and also in the last winter." < Stratospheric warming events over the North Pole push very cold air into North America and Europe. This is what caused Winter Storm Uri last February.

Yes, this should get interesting!