Oil & Gas Prices - Dec 23
Posted: Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:45 am
Happy Christmas Eve Eve! There are lots of people hitting the road today for the holidays. We will be heading to Dallas early tomorrow.
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 17c to $72.93/Bbl, and Brent is up 18c to $75.47/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 16.8c to $3.808/MMBtu.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
WTI is trading near a four-week high as EIA reported a large inventory draw
> The EIA reported a draw of 4.7-MMBbls in crude inventories
> According to Reuters, the large draw can be attributed in part to year-end tax considerations, which dents imports, and strong refinery runs in the U.S. Gulf Coast
> Gasoline stocks rose by a build of 5.5-MMBbl build, compared with expectations of a 467-MBbl build
> Gasoline price, NYMEX Gasoline crack is up on reports of an explosion at ExxonMobil Baytown refinery
The Baytown refinery is the nation’s fourth-largest, with capacity of 560 MBbl/d
> Production was reduced across the Baytown refining and petrochemical complex in August 2019 because of a fire in a propylene recovery unit at the olefins plant
> The NYMEX gasoline crack is up 5.6%, to $19.343
Natural Gas
The prompt-month Henry Hub contract (Jan ’22) is down by 16c, to $3.808/MMBtu
> The gas-weighted heating degree day forecast for December decreased by 5 HDDs to 679 HDDs
> Production is up by about 0.106 Bcf/d this morning, to a December high of 95.5 Bcf/d
> LNG feedgas demand is down by 0.2 Bcf/d, to 12.7 Bcf/d
> Solar power dropped to a multi-month low of 4.7 GW as it makes its seasonal trek lower
European power prices hit new records as France prices hit EUR700/MWh for the January contract
> TTF settled below the record highs seen earlier this week at $57.41, as Russian gas exports to Europe have fallen even further this morning. Some buyers of long-term contracts have reportedly hit their contractual limits for the year
> In Gazprom's call with analysts and investors today, the did not shed any light on their rationale for withholding gas
The EIA is expected to report a 57-Bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 17, which would be smaller than the 147-Bcf draw in the corresponding week of last year and the five-year average draw of 153 Bcf
> Analysts estimates ranged from a draw of 50 Bcf to 66 Bcf
> A draw within this range would bring total stocks near 3.336 Tcf and the deficit to the five-year average would move to a 32 Bcf surplus
> Over the past five weeks, the survey has missed the EIA estimate by an average of 2 Bcf
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 17c to $72.93/Bbl, and Brent is up 18c to $75.47/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 16.8c to $3.808/MMBtu.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
WTI is trading near a four-week high as EIA reported a large inventory draw
> The EIA reported a draw of 4.7-MMBbls in crude inventories
> According to Reuters, the large draw can be attributed in part to year-end tax considerations, which dents imports, and strong refinery runs in the U.S. Gulf Coast
> Gasoline stocks rose by a build of 5.5-MMBbl build, compared with expectations of a 467-MBbl build
> Gasoline price, NYMEX Gasoline crack is up on reports of an explosion at ExxonMobil Baytown refinery
The Baytown refinery is the nation’s fourth-largest, with capacity of 560 MBbl/d
> Production was reduced across the Baytown refining and petrochemical complex in August 2019 because of a fire in a propylene recovery unit at the olefins plant
> The NYMEX gasoline crack is up 5.6%, to $19.343
Natural Gas
The prompt-month Henry Hub contract (Jan ’22) is down by 16c, to $3.808/MMBtu
> The gas-weighted heating degree day forecast for December decreased by 5 HDDs to 679 HDDs
> Production is up by about 0.106 Bcf/d this morning, to a December high of 95.5 Bcf/d
> LNG feedgas demand is down by 0.2 Bcf/d, to 12.7 Bcf/d
> Solar power dropped to a multi-month low of 4.7 GW as it makes its seasonal trek lower
European power prices hit new records as France prices hit EUR700/MWh for the January contract
> TTF settled below the record highs seen earlier this week at $57.41, as Russian gas exports to Europe have fallen even further this morning. Some buyers of long-term contracts have reportedly hit their contractual limits for the year
> In Gazprom's call with analysts and investors today, the did not shed any light on their rationale for withholding gas
The EIA is expected to report a 57-Bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 17, which would be smaller than the 147-Bcf draw in the corresponding week of last year and the five-year average draw of 153 Bcf
> Analysts estimates ranged from a draw of 50 Bcf to 66 Bcf
> A draw within this range would bring total stocks near 3.336 Tcf and the deficit to the five-year average would move to a 32 Bcf surplus
> Over the past five weeks, the survey has missed the EIA estimate by an average of 2 Bcf