EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Dec 29

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 24, 2021 with my comments in blue.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending December 24, 2021 which was 115,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 89.7% of their operable capacity last week. < This needs to stay high because refined product inventories are all too low for this time of year.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.1 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day last week, increased by 0.6 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 13.7% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 432,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 162,000 barrels per day.

Focus s/b on where the inventories stand compared to the five year average.
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year. < Keep in mind that SPR inventories are also falling.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 14% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 18.9 million barrels last week. < So, what happened to IEA's prediction that global oil demand would decline because of the Omicron Variant???

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.4 million barrels a day, up by 12.4% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.3 million barrels a day, up by 17.1% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 7.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 20.6% compared with the same four week period last year.
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MY TAKE: Keeping in mind that EIA's weekly reports during major holidays are even more "Wild Ass Guesses" than usual, this is a very bullish report. It shows that demand for all oil-based products remains higher than expected. It also shows that inventories of space heating fuels (propane and distillates) are "dangerously low" for this time of year. I do believe we are seeing the first signs of a global energy crisis. Supply & Demand are TIGHT and likely to get a lot TIGHTER when we finally escape from Dr. Fauci's "Pandemic World".