EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Dec 30
Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2021 11:16 am
Working gas in storage was 3,226 Bcf as of Friday, December 24, 2021, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 136 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 250 Bcf less than last year at this time and 19 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,207 Bcf.
At 3,226 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
If you've been following the 10-day weather forecast (which I check each day), you know that the US weather pattern is getting much colder during the first week of January. See: https://weather.com/maps/tendayforecast
I expect the draw from storage to be ~120 Bcf for the week ending December 31st, which compares to the 5-year average of 101 Bcf. Industrial demand for gas goes down during the holiday week each year. The first week of January should be a draw over 200 Bcf and if the cold hangs around all month, storage should move below the 5-year average week after week. If I'm right and gas is storage goes further below the 5-year average week after week, we should see FEB22 NYMEX contract settle over $4.00/mcf.
Here are the 5-year average draws for the next 5 weeks.
Dec 31: -101 Bcf
Jan 7: -174 Bcf
Jan 14: -172 Bcf
Jan 21: -198 Bcf
Jan 28: -142 Bcf
Natural gas prices in Europe have come down to ~$32/MMBtu, but there is still a HUGE profit margin on US LNG shipments, so I expect US exports of LNG to remain near capacity of 12.5 Bcf per day. Propane prices should remain over $45/bbl thru Q1, giving all of our "gassers" a nice revenue boost to start the year.
This represents a net decrease of 136 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 250 Bcf less than last year at this time and 19 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,207 Bcf.
At 3,226 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
If you've been following the 10-day weather forecast (which I check each day), you know that the US weather pattern is getting much colder during the first week of January. See: https://weather.com/maps/tendayforecast
I expect the draw from storage to be ~120 Bcf for the week ending December 31st, which compares to the 5-year average of 101 Bcf. Industrial demand for gas goes down during the holiday week each year. The first week of January should be a draw over 200 Bcf and if the cold hangs around all month, storage should move below the 5-year average week after week. If I'm right and gas is storage goes further below the 5-year average week after week, we should see FEB22 NYMEX contract settle over $4.00/mcf.
Here are the 5-year average draws for the next 5 weeks.
Dec 31: -101 Bcf
Jan 7: -174 Bcf
Jan 14: -172 Bcf
Jan 21: -198 Bcf
Jan 28: -142 Bcf
Natural gas prices in Europe have come down to ~$32/MMBtu, but there is still a HUGE profit margin on US LNG shipments, so I expect US exports of LNG to remain near capacity of 12.5 Bcf per day. Propane prices should remain over $45/bbl thru Q1, giving all of our "gassers" a nice revenue boost to start the year.