Sweet 16 for 2012
Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 1:03 pm
I just sent an "EPG Flash Alert" to Jeff that announces all the changes being made to our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio for 2012. Jeff is home with his family today, so the alert may not go out until Tuesday morning.
EPG Premium Members can find the new Sweet 16 spreadsheet with a summary of the EPS and CFPS forecasts for each company by loggin on and clicking on the Sweet 16 Tab. Click on the "Sweet 16 Forecasts" link. I have also posted my forecast models for each of the additions.
Five new companies have been added. I am expecting double digit production and reserve growth from all the E&P companies. We remain heavily weighed to oil. I have added more exposure to the Marcellus Shale.
There is nothing wrong with the five companies being dropped back to the Watch List. In fact, they are all trading well below my Fair Value estimates. I just wanted to shake thinks up a bit and increase our exposure to the North American Shale plays. The Bakken Shale will continue to get a lot of press but look for strong results from the Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Niobrara and the Utica Shale.
NOTE: My Fair Value estimates are primarily based on my 2011 forecast models. I am now expecting sharp increases in earnings and cash flows in 2012 for all of the companies in the portfolio. Therefore, look for my Fair Value estimates to go up once I get 4th quarter actuals and roll the models forward a year.
EPG Premium Members can find the new Sweet 16 spreadsheet with a summary of the EPS and CFPS forecasts for each company by loggin on and clicking on the Sweet 16 Tab. Click on the "Sweet 16 Forecasts" link. I have also posted my forecast models for each of the additions.
Five new companies have been added. I am expecting double digit production and reserve growth from all the E&P companies. We remain heavily weighed to oil. I have added more exposure to the Marcellus Shale.
There is nothing wrong with the five companies being dropped back to the Watch List. In fact, they are all trading well below my Fair Value estimates. I just wanted to shake thinks up a bit and increase our exposure to the North American Shale plays. The Bakken Shale will continue to get a lot of press but look for strong results from the Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Niobrara and the Utica Shale.
NOTE: My Fair Value estimates are primarily based on my 2011 forecast models. I am now expecting sharp increases in earnings and cash flows in 2012 for all of the companies in the portfolio. Therefore, look for my Fair Value estimates to go up once I get 4th quarter actuals and roll the models forward a year.