Energy Prospectus

Down 10 % at open, any news??

All i see is this

https://investors.comstockresources.com ... 659d45b351

I don't know if there is anything specific about CRK, but looking at many Fossil and Non-Fossil stocks, I see broad and unusual coordination of trading activity across all Large, Mid and Small Cap stocks and ETFs. To me this is all nervous risk off trading before tomorrows 1 PM Central FOMC meeting announcement. Likely most of this risk off is already priced in, and early morning trading is just yesterday's fearful jumping out before today's uptrend resumes.

Ultimately if this goes like similar FOMC Rate Raising meetings, all of the news is priced in and even an hour or two before the meeting announcement, the market will start recovering. The rest of the market will follow after the announcement and in the days afterward.

Kevin

FRISCO, TX, Jan. 24, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Comstock Resources, Inc. ("Comstock" or the "Company") (NYSE: CRK) announced today that its proved oil and natural gas reserves as of December 31, 2021 were estimated at 6.1 trillion cubic feet equivalent ("Tcfe") as compared to total proved oil and gas reserves of 5.6 Tcfe as of December 31, 2020.

The reserve estimates were determined under the SEC guidelines and were audited by the Company's independent reserve engineering firm. The 6.1 Tcfe of proved reserves at December 31, 2021 were 37% developed and 98% were operated by Comstock. The present value, using a 10% discount rate, of the future net cash flows before income taxes of the proved reserves (the "PV-10 Value"), was approximately $6.8 billion, using the Company's average first of month 2021 prices of $3.33 per Mcf of natural gas and $62.38 per barrel of oil.

So, CRK's net asset value based only on the PV10 value of just their proved reserves (P1) is over $12/share.

Comstock produced 1.2 million barrels of oil and 489.3 billion cubic feet ("Bcf") or 496.5 billion cubic feet equivalent ("Bcfe") in 2021. In the fourth quarter of 2021, Comstock's production averaged 1.3 Bcfe of natural gas per day, which was an increase of 12% over the fourth quarter of 2020. Total reserve additions replaced 199% of the Company's 2021 production with drilling activities providing 161% of the reserve replacement in 2021.

Q4 production was lower than my forecast, which may explain why the share price is down. < They did close the Bakken sale on November 16th.

The Company spent $628.2 million on drilling and other development activities in 2021 to drill 100 (54.1 net) new horizontal Haynesville and Bossier shale wells and to put 95 (56.4 net) wells on production during 2021. Comstock also spent $21.8 million to acquire proved oil and gas properties and $35.9 million to acquire unproved oil and natural gas leases in 2021. Based on the 2021 proved reserve additions, Comstock's "all-in" finding costs were approximately 60¢ per Mcfe. Excluding acquisitions, Comstock's drill bit finding costs were 71¢ per Mcfe in 2021. < This is outstanding.

I have CRT and 78 other stocks, they were all down this morning with no news other than a lot of investors expect a long-delayed correction is at hand.

Comstock should report Q4 2021 operating cash flow of approximately $260 million, not including the sales proceeds from the Bakken sale.
If their average realized natural gas price is $3.50/mcf in 2022, the Company should generate approximately $1.2 billion of operating cash flow this year.
This morning: "Stifel analyst Derrick Whitfield raised the price target on Comstock Resources (NYSE: CRK) to $14.00 (from $13.00) while maintaining a Buy rating."

Details from Stifel

Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK, $7.85, Buy; Target $14.00)
Updating estimates for proved reserve release and preliminary Q421 operational results - Derrick Whitfield
After the close on Monday, Comstock released its proved reserves as of December 31, 2021 and preliminary Q421 operational results. Regarding YE-21 reserves, the company increased their proved reserves by 9% y/y with all-in F&D costs of $0.60/mcfe, or a decrease of 9% y/y. Regarding preliminary operational results, implied Q421 gas volumes were 1,337.3 mmcfpd (6.5% below consensus) and capex was $160.2 million (21.4% above consensus). We attribute the production miss to higher than expected shut-ins and timing delays (driven by supply chain constraints), and the capex miss to higher than expected inflation and activity. We are also increasing our 2022 capex estimate by 17% to account for longer laterals (10,000' versus 8,800' in 2021).
Net-net, we remain constructive on Comstock as the company is positioned to generate substantial free cash flow in 2022 ($634 million, 29% FCF yield) and achieve its leverage target of 1.5x by year-end 2022.

Thanks, all.

I thought the move to 6 ish, down 10 % was over blown, and bought there

I think part of the downward pressure on CRK and all of the Gassers is the warmer February weather outlook.
To me this does not explain all of the drop.