Energy Prospectus

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $1.40 to $89.60/Bbl, and Brent is up $1.15 to $90.31/Bbl.
> Natural gas is up 58.7c to $5.338/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Crude oil rallied Wednesday morning after OPEC+ agreed to hike its previously planned 400 MBbl/d for March
> The move higher comes as some market analysts were suggesting that the group may hike more than the 400 MBbl/d
> There is concern that some members of OPEC+ can’t meet their production targets < I told you so!

> EIA crude inventories are due at 9:30 am ET. Here is what the Wall Street Gang expects.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories: +1,055 MMBbl
U.S. Gasoline Inventories: +1,895 MMBbl
U.S. Distillate Inventory: -1,237 MMBbl
U.S. Refinery Utilization: +0.01%

Natural Gas

The prompt-month (Mar ’22) Henry Hub contract is up by around 58.7c this morning, near $5.338
> U.S. lower-48 dry gas production is down by another 1.7 Bcf/d to 91.1 Bcf/d. Freezing temperatures in the south-central region are largely responsible for the decline
> The gas-weighted heating degree day forecast for February increased by 2 HDDs over the weekend, to 781 HDDs
> AEGIS notes this mornings move isn’t justified by the change in weather but is more likely from production freeze-offs and increased heating demand < My SWAG is that we see spot market prices in several regions spike over $10 and a few over $20. Oklahoma is expected be hit hard and lots of SCOOP/STACK wells will freeze off.

US LNG company Tellurian plans to begin building on its $16.8 billion Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana in April
> Starting in 2026, the first phase of the Driftwood project will be able to process 1.4 Bcf/d of gas

Natural Gas spot market prices

Forbes: Why is New England paying the equivalent of $180 oil for natural gas?
Yesterday New Englanders had reason to feel a little more … European than usual. that’s because according to Department of Energy data they were paying a spot price of $30.5 per million British thermal units for natural gas. Just 200 miles to the south, beneath western Pennsylvania, lay the nation’s biggest gas field — the Marcellus shale. But very little Marcellus gas flows to New England, because NIMBYs and their politicians have blocked construction of pipelines. And yet how does New England get its gas? Nearly all of it comes by ship, in giant insulated tankers carrying -260 degree condensed liquefied natural gas, most of which dock at the Everett LNG regasification terminal in Boston harbor, owned by Exelon Generation.

AR, EQT, CTRA and RRC all have outstanding marketing teams that can get some of their uncommitted gas to areas that offer high spot market prices.

Per my newsletter "People do really stupid stuff"
New England imports natural gas from outside the U.S. because they are too "stupid" to allow construction of pipelines that will bring natural gas and NGLs from God's Gift to America, the Marcellus gas fields in Pennsylvania. Some LNG cargos coming to Boston are actually delivering natural gas from Russia.
Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christophe ... 8af31e30a7

I live in Mass. No one up here talks about this. Maybe when they see there heating bills , they will start a discussion.