Natural Gas in storage to keep declining
Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2022 9:43 am
MY TAKE: Natural gas in U.S. storage was 143 Bcf below the 5-year average on January 28 and I now believe we will see ngas storage go close to 300 Bcf below the 5-year average by February 11.
"As of 9:00 AM ET on February 5, the population-weighted nationwide temperature is 30.4°F which is 4.9°F colder than yesterday and 7.6°F colder than the historical average. Accumulated Natural Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) through 9:00 AM EDT tally 13.6 GWDDs which is 2.0 GWDDs greater than yesterday through the same time and 3.0 GWDDs greater than average. This suggests an above-average contribution of temperature to natural gas demand." - https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-weather.html
This is important because ...
> Refilling ngas storage during the refill season (April to October) is not optional.
> The U.S. must have close to 4 TCF of gas in storage to safely make it through a cold winter.
> Refill season is 214 days long. Adding 1.5 Bcfpd to demand during the refill season is significant and should support natural gas prices until storage gets back to the 5-year average.
> Another big issue is Europe's gas shortage, which should keep LNG exports near capacity all year.
Timing: The next two ngas storage reports should show weekly draws of 250 Bcf for week ending Feb 4 and 210 Bcf for week ending Feb 11. We've never had five weekly draws over 200 Bcf in a row.
"As of 9:00 AM ET on February 5, the population-weighted nationwide temperature is 30.4°F which is 4.9°F colder than yesterday and 7.6°F colder than the historical average. Accumulated Natural Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) through 9:00 AM EDT tally 13.6 GWDDs which is 2.0 GWDDs greater than yesterday through the same time and 3.0 GWDDs greater than average. This suggests an above-average contribution of temperature to natural gas demand." - https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/intraday-weather.html
This is important because ...
> Refilling ngas storage during the refill season (April to October) is not optional.
> The U.S. must have close to 4 TCF of gas in storage to safely make it through a cold winter.
> Refill season is 214 days long. Adding 1.5 Bcfpd to demand during the refill season is significant and should support natural gas prices until storage gets back to the 5-year average.
> Another big issue is Europe's gas shortage, which should keep LNG exports near capacity all year.
Timing: The next two ngas storage reports should show weekly draws of 250 Bcf for week ending Feb 4 and 210 Bcf for week ending Feb 11. We've never had five weekly draws over 200 Bcf in a row.