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Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Q4 Results - Mar 3

Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:50 pm
by dan_s
HIGHLIGHTS

Fourth quarter production of 64,155 Boe per day (59.2% oil), an increase of 11% from the third quarter of 2021 < My Q4 forecast was 61,000 Boepd.

Fourth quarter GAAP cash flow from operations of $133.1 million. Excluding changes in net working capital, cash flow from operations was $158.0 million, an increase of 29% from the third quarter of 2021 < Compares to my operating cash flow forecast of $148.4 million.

Total capital expenditures of $83.7 million during the fourth quarter, excluding previously-announced non-budgeted acquisitions

Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP) of $70.7 million during the fourth quarter, post-preferred stock dividends, increased 28% from the third quarter of 2021.

Initiates 2022 production guidance of 70,000 - 75,000 Boe per day, with $350 - $415 million total planned capital expenditures

Closed Veritas acquisition in the Permian Basin, largest acquisition in NOG’s history, on January 27, 2022

Announced a Base Dividend Growth plan in December 2021, highlighted by planned 20% average dividend growth per quarter through 2023

Retired $7.2 million in face value of Convertible Preferred Stock

MINNEAPOLIS, February 24, 2022--Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) announced the company’s fourth quarter and full year 2021 results.

MANAGEMENT COMMENTS

"2021 was a truly transformational year for NOG," commented Nick O’Grady, NOG’s Chief Executive Officer. "We enter 2022 with a stronger asset base and balance sheet, and with a formalized plan of increasing shareholder returns. We are an increasingly diversified, balanced business, with opportunities to self-fund accretive growth while steadily increasing returns to our shareholders."

FINANCIAL RESULTS

Oil and natural gas sales for the fourth quarter were $332.4 million, an increase of 28% over the third quarter. Fourth quarter GAAP net income was $171.1 million or $2.13 per diluted share. Fourth quarter Adjusted Net Income was $87.0 million or $1.06 per diluted share, an increase of $35.7 million or $0.64 per diluted share over the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $175.3 million, an increase of 29% over the third quarter.

Oil and natural gas sales for full year 2021 were $975.1 million, an increase of 201% over full year 2020. Full year 2021 Adjusted Net Income was $256.3 million or $3.49 per diluted share. Full year 2021 GAAP net loss was $8.4 million or $0.13 per diluted share. Full year 2021 Adjusted EBITDA was $543.0 million, an increase of 54% over the prior year. (See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below.)

PRODUCTION

Fourth quarter production was 64,155 Boe per day, an 11% increase from the third quarter. Oil represented 59.2% of production in the fourth quarter. NOG had 12.1 net wells turned online during the fourth quarter, compared to 6.5 net wells turned online in the third quarter of 2021. NOG saw production outperform internal expectations in the fourth quarter, most notably in its Appalachian properties. Full year 2021 production was 53,792 Boe per day, above the high end of NOG’s 2021 guidance.

Re: Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Q4 Results - Mar 3

Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:42 pm
by dan_s
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for NOG, increasing my valuation by $2 to $46/share.