Oil & Gas Market Update (podcast) - Mar 5
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:13 pm
Here is the direct link to my weekly podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDavriwfgfk
In this update I explain why Russia's invasion of Ukraine has pushed the world closer to an "Energy Crisis".
Since Q2 2020 demand for oil-based fuels and products has exceeded supply by close to 2 million barrels per day. In mid-2020 we had a large surplus of refined products, but the surplus is gone and we now have petroleum inventories sitting at more than ten-year lows.
Thanks to under-investment in finding & developing new oil supplies we are now on the brink of an extended period when rationing of gasoline and diesel may be necessary. The sanctions against Russia are going to take several million barrels per day of oil off the global market and it appears that Russia is not going to give up on their plans to take control of Ukraine.
The U.S. natural gas market is also much tighter than it was a year ago and I now believe that U.S. natural gas prices will stay within the range of $4.50 to $5.50. There is actually more risk to the upside if we have a hot summer.
Based on today's commodity prices, there is at least 50% upside in our Sweet 16 and Small-Cap Growth Portfolios.
In this update I explain why Russia's invasion of Ukraine has pushed the world closer to an "Energy Crisis".
Since Q2 2020 demand for oil-based fuels and products has exceeded supply by close to 2 million barrels per day. In mid-2020 we had a large surplus of refined products, but the surplus is gone and we now have petroleum inventories sitting at more than ten-year lows.
Thanks to under-investment in finding & developing new oil supplies we are now on the brink of an extended period when rationing of gasoline and diesel may be necessary. The sanctions against Russia are going to take several million barrels per day of oil off the global market and it appears that Russia is not going to give up on their plans to take control of Ukraine.
The U.S. natural gas market is also much tighter than it was a year ago and I now believe that U.S. natural gas prices will stay within the range of $4.50 to $5.50. There is actually more risk to the upside if we have a hot summer.
Based on today's commodity prices, there is at least 50% upside in our Sweet 16 and Small-Cap Growth Portfolios.