EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Mar 17
Posted: Thu Mar 17, 2022 10:38 am
Working gas in storage was 1,440 Bcf as of Friday, March 11, 2022, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 79 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 344 Bcf less than last year at this time and 304 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,744 Bcf.
At 1,440 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
The 5-year average storage level on April 1 is 1,662 Bcf.
My SWAG is that storage declines another 130 Bcf over the three weeks ending April 1.
That would put end of heating seasons storage at 1,310 Bcf or 352 Bcf below the five-year average.
This is a very bullish scenario for U.S. natural gas prices.
> Refilling storage before the next winter heating season is a big part of annual demand.
> Demand for LNG exports from the U.S. to Europe are expected to remain at capacity.
> Industrial demand is coming back strong in Post-Pandemic World.
> As long as gas storage stays below the 5-year average, natural gas futures should stay over $4.50 and might go over $5.00 if we get a larger than average draw for the week ending March 18th.
This represents a net decrease of 79 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 344 Bcf less than last year at this time and 304 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,744 Bcf.
At 1,440 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
The 5-year average storage level on April 1 is 1,662 Bcf.
My SWAG is that storage declines another 130 Bcf over the three weeks ending April 1.
That would put end of heating seasons storage at 1,310 Bcf or 352 Bcf below the five-year average.
This is a very bullish scenario for U.S. natural gas prices.
> Refilling storage before the next winter heating season is a big part of annual demand.
> Demand for LNG exports from the U.S. to Europe are expected to remain at capacity.
> Industrial demand is coming back strong in Post-Pandemic World.
> As long as gas storage stays below the 5-year average, natural gas futures should stay over $4.50 and might go over $5.00 if we get a larger than average draw for the week ending March 18th.