Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 18

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $0.38 to $103.36/bbl, and Brent is up $0.01 to $106.65/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -5.8c to $4.932/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Oil futures were trading near $103/Bbl in the U.S. after surging 8.4% on Thursday
> West Texas Intermediate has swung by more than $16/Bbl this week (BBG)
> Brent has moved by more than $5 in each of the last 16 sessions; a record

Earlier this week, the IEA warned that Russia’s oil output could slump by a quarter next month, causing the biggest supply shock in decades (Bloomberg)
“Should the IEA’s warning prove to be prescient, there is little standing in the way of a hefty supply deficit in the coming months,” said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates

Traders continue to flee volatility
> One of the most volatile has been diesel, partly because Russia is a major exporter to the rest of Europe
> Open interest has fallen by more than half from its high last year, as traders avoid wild price gyrations

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures are down this morning, as weather forecasts turned bearish
> After several increases in the gas-weighted heating degree day forecast for March, last night’s forecast showed much warmer temperatures in the Rockies for the 7-14 day time range
> The March gas-weighted heating degree day forecast posted an 8.5 HDD loss to bring the total to 544
> The weather forecast knocked the lower-48 demand forecast 10 Bcf lower, while production has risen about 0.9 Bcf/d this week to 93 Bcf/d

The EIA reported a draw of 79 Bcf for the week ending March 11
> The draw brought inventories to 1,440 Bcf, which is 304 Bcf, or 17.4% below the five-year average